The COVID-19 pandemic and its socio-economic impacts are compounding an already delicate process of democratization in Myanmar. Many of the country’s researchers are addressing this new challenge to ensure gains on health, the economy, and political participation are not lost, according to a report by IDRC.

Every country needs its own community of think tanks, universities, and civil society organizations that can generate evidence to inform decision-making, especially in times of crisis. The Knowledge for Democracy Myanmar initiative, a five-year IDRC partnership with Global Affairs Canada, has been supporting the growth of this community in Myanmar. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the initiative’s research partners have focused on issues that are particularly relevant for policymakers and are effectively communicating the results of their research.

In recent months, these partners have investigated and raised awareness about issues related to COVID-19, such as returning migrant workers, the slowdown in the garment industry, increases in domestic violence, and impacts on democratic reform and the peacebuilding processes. This rapid and nationally relevant research is essential for effective policy responses to external shocks such as the pandemic.

The health and economic challenges of returning migrants

Compared to many countries, COVID-19 has been slow to gain foothold in Myanmar. As of June 24, 2020, the Ministry of Health and Sport website had reported 293 cases of COVID-19 and six deaths nationwide. However, any movement of people in and out of the country still presents great risk and Myanmar is a substantial supplier of migrant labour to neighbouring countries.

A recipient of Knowledge for Democracy Myanmar, the Centre for Economic and Social Development, warns that migrant workers returning from other countries pose a health and economic challenge for policymakers. Their return puts economic pressure on households that were very dependant on the remittances these migrant workers would send back home. The centre’s research shows that some households in Mon state, for example, relied on remittances for as much as 25% of their income. As migrants return, they also risk spreading COVID-19 further among the population. Zaw Oo, the centre’s executive director, argues in the Myanmar Times that policy responses are not considering the particular needs of migrants who may be more exposed to COVID-19, who risk losing their livelihoods, and whose movements in large flows could further the spread of the virus. Migrants need to be considered as a unique group not only for humanitarian reasons but also because of their key contribution to household incomes.

Job losses for women

The economic burden of COVID 19 will disproportionately fall on workers, especially women. The pandemic’s economic impact is first concentrated on manufacturing, especially the garment sector and tourism, and is likely to spread to the rest of the economy. The garment sector brought employment opportunities to thousands of female migrant workers in factories in Yangon and elsewhere.

Demand for garments made in Myanmar has collapsed worldwide. COVID-19 restrictions have affected production chains, starting with the disruption of demand from China and other Asian countries, and the subsequent wiping out of any remaining demand from Europe after the virus spread there.

Unlike other governments, Myanmar does not have the capacity to deploy the kind of economic interventions currently in force in Canada or the European Union to limit the impact of COVID-19 prevention measures on employment. This leaves Myanmar’s workforce exposed to hardship.

The Centre for Economic and Social Development has been working closely with the government to develop a long-term strategy for the garment sector while trying to develop a bridging social-protection program for workers, who are mostly women.  The European Union has offered CAD$8 million in emergency funding for Myanmar garment workers; the “Myan Ku” (“Quick Response” in Myanmar language) fund pays cash directly to laid off workers to help them through this crisis.

Gains in gender equality at risk

Job losses are not the only costs for women during this pandemic. Local think tanks and networks are advocating for measures to ensure that the health crisis does not undermine women’s rights by eroding gains that have been made over recent years.

Women are the vast majority among victims of domestic violence, which is on the rise across the country: part of a pattern that is reflected globally. According to Legal Clinic Myanmar, domestic violence cases have become more common as the lockdowns and curfew orders have come into effect. The Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement has created a 24-hour help line to report complaints and provide access to counseling services.

Knowledge for Democracy Myanmar research partners are raising awareness through campaigns and online outreach activities. For example, the Enlightened Myanmar Research Foundation has engaged with its constituents through a monthly newsletter “Sa Voix” to highlight the importance of including women in government responses to the pandemic. The foundation points out that women are workers but also care givers at home and at health facilities and therefore disproportionately at risk. Another initiative grantee, the Gender Equality Network holds regular Facebook events to raise awareness about domestic violence during the pandemic.

Threats to democratic reform and peacebuilding

Progress in key areas of transition risk stagnation during the pandemic, including efforts to improve access to up-to-date, independent, and credible sources of information.

In Myanmar, all telecommunications operators are complying with a government mandated internet blackout for parts of western Myanmar. IDRC-funded research on misinformation has shown the need for freer and greater access to information about the spread of violence and the pandemic to vulnerable communities not only in Myanmar but in neighbouring Bangladesh as well.

Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security (MIPS) executive director, Min Zaw Oo, stated that the peace process and possible ceasefire are seriously threatened by COVID-19, in an interview with international media. Despite a recent travel ban on independent news services in Rahkine state, this think tank continues to provide timely information and conflict monitoring across Myanmar with its annual review. The institute is able to maintain valuable datasets, such as instances of communal violence and geographic areas of recent armed engagement between parties to the conflict, that help researchers understand the fluctuations in the intensity of the conflict during the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an important test for Myanmar, as it nears a new milestone in democratic transformation. The country holds its second-ever general elections later this year. Knowledge for Democracy Myanmar research partners are energized with the possibility of engaging at this critical time with facts, analysis, and action. In the face of the pandemic, they continue to display an unwavering determination to progress on the journey towards Myanmar’s democratic transformation.