Months of Uncertainty after November 8 Elections, Analyst Predicts


USDP members campaigning for their party's upcoming election in townships in Mandalay on 27 October 2015. Photo: Bo Bo/Mizzima

USDP members campaigning for their party's upcoming election in townships in Mandalay on 27 October 2015. Photo: Bo Bo/Mizzima

Myanmar could face months of negotiating between political parties and groups after the November 8 elections before a new government emerges, an analyst forecast.

“I would be very surprised if the National League for Democracy won less than 50%, but …I predict months and months of horse trading ahead as they try to work out what alliances may work best,” The Economist’s Richard Cockett said.

Cockett, the former Southeast Asia bureau chief for the respected business magazine, has just written a book: “Myanmar Blood, Dreams and Gold” which traces the country’s recent history to the present.

He said he sees Myanmar both benefitting and possibly suffering from being wedged between India and China.

“India has been building infrastructure in the west of Myanmar while China has invested in the eastern part. There’s one view that Myanmar could become a focus of cooperation between India and China, but there’s also a fear that Myanmar could become the locus for a new Great Game,” Cockett said on The Economist’s website.

The great game refers to the geopolitical rivalry between the British and Russian empires in the 19th Century in Central Asia.


This Article first appeared in the October 22, 2015 edition of Mizzima Weekly.

Mizzima Weekly is available in print in Yangon through Innwa Bookstore and through online subscription at www.mzineplus.com

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