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Burma's referendum: a done deal that may yet unravel - Page 3 |
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by Larry Jagan
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Friday, 02 May 2008 18:11 |
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Page 3 of 3
"You don't need to read the constitution to know its simply conferring power on the military for eternity," said an elderly Burmese academic who wanted to remain anonymous. "The choice is simple – a vote in favour of adopting the constitution means we want the military to play the leading role in politics and run the county," he said.
Under the new constitution the president must be a military man, a quarter of the parliamentary seats will be nominated by the army chief, key ministries including defence and interior remain under military control, and the army reserves the right to oust any civilian administration it deems to have jeopardised national security.
Detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, is effectively barred from political office because she was married to a foreigner, the eminent British academic and Buddhist scholar, Michael Aris, who died of prostate cancer in 1999.
This all makes a mockery of the government's stated aim of moving towards a multi-party democracy along its seven-stage road map. Burma's second in command, General Maung Aye, recently told a parade of new recruits that the constitution would pave the way for democracy.
"Comrades, it is the Tatmadaw [military] that is constantly striving for the emergence of a constitution capable of shaping the multi-party democratic system," he told the army recruits last week.
But legal experts and human rights activists insist the Burmese military have got it topsy-turvy. Real democracy needs to be nurtured, including freeing all political prisoners from jail, allowing political parties to operate normally, guaranteeing freedom of the press and having an independent judiciary. This is certainly not the case in Burma.
Professor Pinheiro, who has visited Burma many times since he was first appointed UN Human Rights Rapporteur for Burma in 2000, is completely flabbergasted.
"I've been following political transitions throughout the world, including Asia for more than thirty years, and I am yet to see a successful transition to democracy without a previous phase of liberalism," he said. There isn't the faintest sign of that yet in the case of Myanmar."
In the seven-step roadmap outlined by Khin Nyunt when he was Prime Minister, the step before the referendum was a period of liberalisation and consolidation. This was when political prisoners were to be given a general amnesty, political parties allowed to resume normal activities - including the opening of all currently shut offices, and community organisations permitted to flourish. Instead, Than Shwe has conveniently skipped over this crucial step.
But if the regime is going to move towards multi-party democracy in the next two years, they will have to resurrect this phase or face a major dilemma after the referendum. The current ministers, many of whom have already been assigned positions in the new civilian administrations that are to emerge after the elections, will have to resign from the government if they are going to run in the forthcoming elections.
The junta will have to seriously consider forming a transitional government -- political parties have to be given a measure of freedom to function properly, especially if they are to campaign in the elections planned for 2010, as has already been announced.
"The junta will find itself in the same position as the Thai coup leaders did in September 2006, they will have to install a neutral administration to oversee the so-called transition to multi-party democracy," said a Burmese academic. "And in today's Burma that will be a tall order. The most sensible thing for them to do would be to engage the NLD and offer a power sharing arrangement – something Than Shwe at least will never contemplate."
Unfortunately these steps are certain to be substantially delayed if there is a significant "no" vote in next week's referendum. For although the real count may not be made public, the top leaders will know they do not have the support of the majority of the Burmese people. This could lead to the top generals going back to the drawing board, even if the referendum is already a done deal. For they would finally know what most Burmese know already – the military rulers are hated by everyone – even by foot soldiers, junior officers and their families.
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