Bangkok, Thailand – The European Union is seriously considering increasing sanctions against Burma later this year if the military regime does not heed international pressure to accelerate national reconciliation, the EU's Special Envoy on Burma told journalists in Bangkok.

If the junta does not accept the advice of the region and play ball with the international community, then the EU will have no option but to step up pressure in the form of stiffer sanctions, he warned.

"It is necessary now to accelerate the national reconciliation process towards democracy in Burma," the EU Envoy, Piero Fassino told Mizzima. "The events of September last year make political change there essential," he said.

"This process without question must be inclusive and involve all the actors in Burmese society – the government or junta, the opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi, representatives of the ethnic groups and other sectors of society," he insisted.

This should warm the hearts of Burma's military leaders sitting in the capital Naypyidaw – some four hundred kilometres north of Rangoon – if they actually cared what the EU Envoy actually said, for after all that describes the National Convention, which took fourteen years to draw up the guidelines for the new constitution.

But the Envoy does appear to understand that despite the junta's rhetoric, national reconciliation can only be achieved through genuine dialogue between the military and the pro-democracy opposition.

"It's crucial that the junta lift all restrictions on the Lady [opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi] and start an open dialogue with the opposition," he said. "That is my main goal," he added.

"Our strategy is to promote dialogue that will realize national reconciliation, dialogue that will realize democratic transition," he said. "This goal will be achieved by discussions with the countries of Asia and the promotion of the UN's initiatives through the Secretary General's Special Envoy for Burma, Ibrahim Gambari," he insisted.

Fassino was at pains to point out that his activities were essentially designed to assist and support Gambari. "I have established excellent cooperation with Mr. Gambari and we are working closely together," he said.

Gambari is currently in India, he added, and will then travel to China for further talks. But not so according to a source close to Gambari – the UN envoy is on his way back to New York, instead of heading to Beijing, because Chinese authorities postponed the trip until early February due to Chinese New Year.

But what the EU and the UN Envoys completely understand is that the countries of Asia could play a key role in helping the process of political and economic change in Burma. "The nations of Asia – China, India, Thailand and the other countries of ASEAN – can play and important and strategic role," mused the EU Envoy.

Fassino though had few suggestions on how that might be achieved. He hinted that they could use their strong economic ties to influence the junta. While never actually talking about the possibility, the envoy also hinted that he thought a major regional conference maybe the way forward.

"We have recently had a good experience in Asia in connection to North Korea that showed how international cooperation can produce results. It demonstrated the important role Asian countries can play and it is possible to solicit these Asian nations to play the same constructive role in the case of the Myanmar crisis," Fassino said.

He was of course referring to the six party talks – at which the EU was not a participant. It would appear to be no accident that this idea was being floated – albeit unstated – in Bangkok after meeting the Thai Foreign Minister, Nitya Pibulsonggram. It has been no secret that this has been Thailand's position for some time – no matter whether it's a civilian or military government in power; it has also been adopted by the leader of Thailand's new government.

But for many analysts it seems too much like resurrecting the old Bangkok Process that was initiated four years ago by the then Thai Foreign Minister, Dr. Surakiart Sathirathai, but failed to make any headway. The key for any internationally-sponsored process to succeed is to engage the Burmese military regime – so far these suggestions have been rebuffed by the junta as there is no enticement or pressure for them to participate.

In fact Fassino's fondness for giving press conferences after every visit he makes will only alienate the regime further. "The international community must understand that we hate megaphone diplomacy and it won't encourage us to do anything," a former military intelligence deputy, Major-General Kyaw Win, told me several years ago when General Khin Nyunt was Prime Minister, before being dismissed and put under house arrest.

If anything the junta's attitude to overt meddling in their internal affairs (as they see it) has hardened and Fassino's megaphone diplomacy will only increase their resolve to snub international overtures like the EU Envoy's mission.

Privately EU officials admit that Fassino's press briefing had more to do with the need to create an image that he was on the case, and help justify his role as Special Envoy. After all, in Bangkok, all he has been doing is meeting people. "I met the foreign affairs minister of Thailand, representatives of the UN here in Bangkok, the main NGO in the region and ASEAN ambassadors for discussions," he stated.

The Thai Foreign Minister, of course, has only days left in office, before the newly elected People's Power Party-led government appoints his successor. But the EU Envoy did not seek an audience with the new Prime Minister, Samak Sundaravej – and simply dismissed suggestions that his current visit was a waste of time. "I will come back next month to see the new Foreign Minister", he added.

So what could the EU bring to the table that might help break the deadlock that has trapped Burma in a time warp for the last twenty years? Apparently Fassino and the EU have few concrete ideas to offer the process.

"The European Union is one of the main actors in the international community. The EU has good relations with China, India and ASEAN and a strong presence in Asia. As a result the EU can contribute to or help the dialogue – by supporting the UN and the efforts of the Special Envoy," the EU envoy retorted.

"We consider the Burma issue a priority. To promote democracy and human rights everywhere is an important mission for the EU, and we want to help the people of Burma. We are a friend of Burma and its people, and we want them to enjoy political freedom and stability," puffed the Envoy.

The EU does have a carrot and stick approach, according to the Envoy. "Although the EU increased sanctions last year after the crackdown," he said, "we also provide substantial humanitarian assistance as we do not want to penalize the people."

In fact the EU increased its aid to Burma last year, before the crackdown. Several member countries, including Sweden and the UK have announced major increases in humanitarian assistance in the past few months.

But previous promises of humanitarian aid and development assistance have not made the regime more open and cooperative with the international community. In fact late last year they threw the UN's chief in Burma, Charles Petrie, out on his ear.

The EU Envoy suggested that if the carrots did not work then the international community would have to resort to more pressure. "If Gambari is not allowed back into the country, or he fails to achieve anything concrete, the EU will have no alternative but to consider increasing sanctions against the junta," he conceded at the end of the press briefing.

Fassino's answers to Mizzima were full of platitudes and rhetoric. He had clearly stated goals – promoting an open dialogue in Burma between the military regime and the opposition, with a firm timetable and agenda. "For that to be successful," he said "Aung San Suu Kyi must be free."

But he lacks a coherent strategy to achieve his goals. He refused to acknowledge that the international community's effort to bring change to Burma over the past two decades has failed and that nothing has worked.

He seemed blithely oblivious to what has happened in Burma in the last 20 years, since the regime brutally crushed pro-democracy demonstrations in a bloody coup. At least six thousand people died, although sources close to the former military intelligence chief put the figure closer to 10,000.

Nor did the Envoy acknowledge that Aung San Suu Kyi has in fact been released from house arrest twice in the last 12 years, only to be reincarnated on the whim of Senior General Than Shwe.

"I am not interested in history, I'm a politician," he retorted when pressed for a real strategy that would bring change to Burma.

Clearly there is no coherent EU strategy, and their only hope is that the UN's efforts may bare fruit. However with Gambari at present being denied access to Burma until after Burmese New Year in April and the increasing likelihood that he will in fact not be welcomed back at all, the prospects of real dialogue and national reconciliation in Burma remain extremely dim.