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Burma's referendum: a done deal that may yet unravel |
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Larry Jagan
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Friday, 02 May 2008 18:11 |
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On May 10, Burma goes to the polls to vote on a new constitution; a constitution that very few people have actually seen, and certainly one which cannot be criticised publicly. The whole process is a farce according to most independent observers, including the UN official responsible for monitoring Burma's human rights situation for the last seven years.
But the new constitution is going to take the country into a significantly new political era, even if the military leaders remain in power. A period of massive change is inevitable. It will have major implications for how the country is governed over the next two years, after which new multiparty elections are scheduled to be held.
In the meantime the junta is taking no chances with the constitutional referendum. They are harassing and intimidating voters, using scare tactics. "The police called on our family last week and told us we had to vote 'yes' or we'd go to jail for three years," a middle-aged mother in Rangoon said on condition of anonymity.
"The whole process is surreal – to have a referendum where only those who are in favor of the constitution can campaign," the former UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Burma, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, told Mizzima in an exclusive interview.
International election monitors have been banned, and it is unlikely that foreign journalists will be allowed in to report on the referendum. Both these are essential if the referendum is to have any international credibility, said Professor Pinheiro.
Although international observers were not permitted to observe last years' constitutional referendum in Thailand, Burma's leaders need them if they are to convince the world, let alone their own people, that the vote was legitimate, according to Pinheiro.
"I think it would be unfair to compare the political system in Thailand with the military government in Myanmar," he said. "After decades without an election at least international observers could verify the conditions of the vote. And the UN has a unit that just deals with elections, but the military government has refused their help."
"To approve the state constitution is a national duty of the entire people, let us all cast a 'Yes' vote in the national interest," state-run newspapers have urged ever since the referendum was announced, exactly a month before the poll.
The government is obviously leaving nothing to chance, and taking every precaution to ensure the constitution is approved. In fact the government is hoping for a unanimous vote, though that is inconceivable unless the results are completely rigged, something which most diplomats in Rangoon believe is highly likely.
Already there are reports of massive irregularities as voters go to the polls to vote early. Some of the electorate have been given ballot papers already marked with a 'yes' vote or the 'no' vote blacked out. Some civil servants in provincial areas were told they had already cast their ballots when they turned up to vote.
The military government has constantly promised that the voting process will be transparent – or as they describe it, held in a "systematic and fair manner." However most analysts believe it will be anything but free and fair. First of all the public or the opposition will not be allowed to scrutinise the counting.
General Myint Swe, in charge of military intelligence and detailed by the top military leader Than Shwe to oversee the vote, recently told a group of military men and government officials in Rangoon that only the last ten voters in the polling station when voting closes would be allowed to stay and witness the actual count.
"These last 10 voters who can monitor the counting of the votes by the poll commission members (around 15 people) will certainly be members of the Union Solidarity and Development Association, who Than Shwe has assigned the task of running the referendum and getting the result he wants," said Win Min, a Burmese academic at Chiang Mai University.
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Burma's referendum: a done deal that may yet unravel
