Chiang Mai, Thailand – A highly renowned international think-tank has released a comprehensive report on the crisis afflicting Burma, outlining an arduous and time consuming process for any prospect of national reconciliation, economic and political reform.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) yesterday released an analysis of the situation in Burma, concluding that, "Whatever happens over the next year or two, Myanmar cannot be expected to move either directly or smoothly from military rule to liberal democracy."

However the report does prosper ideas as to how chances of a future, prosperous and democratic Burma may be maximized.

ICG proscribes that the primary focus of reform be centered on negotiation, economic reforms and significant expansion in the delivery of humanitarian aid. Broad-based political reform is to follow at a later date.

Though Western countries have directed much attention to support for democratic change, the report cautions that it is just as important to address peacebuilding and economic development.

"Even if the political will for reform improves, Myanmar will still face immense challenges in overcoming the debilitating legacy of decades of conflict, poverty and institutional failure, which fuelled the recent crisis and could well overwhelm future governments as well," warns the report.

"A growing economy", ICG hopes, "might relieve some pressure on the regime in the short term but would also give future leaders confidence to undertake reforms, strengthen the basis for independent political and social society, help lift people out of misery and support the expensive processes required to establish peace, democracy and federalism."

The report encourages the formation of a small coterie of international actors to work in close collaboration with the United Nations initiative. Due to the pervading hostility between Washington and Naypyidaw, the authors council that the United States not be a party to this inner group of international actors. A European presence is also omitted.

"The prospect of losing privileges or being held accountable for human rights violations is a powerful motivation for maintaining tight control," the report contends, referring to positions prevalent in North America and Europe. "There has to be a face-saving solution which also protects what the military sees as its vital interests."

Instead, ICG supports an inner working group consisting of Burma, China and select ASEAN countries. The United States, Europe and rights groups are to occupy themselves with continued monitoring of events in Burma, to ensure that developments are headed in the right direction.

Without a working group, progress is said to be highly unlikely. ASEAN is described as lacking a unified position, and the prospects of it achieving one are defined as "improbable." Meanwhile, on its own, ICG cautions that the influence of China should not be "exaggerated."

India, it is believed, does not possess mechanisms though which pressure can be effectively levied against Burma's generals. "Naypyidaw believes that it needs New Delhi less than the other way around and holds the upper hand in the relationship," argues ICG.

It is, however, envisioned that China can play a constructive role in bringing about change in Burma. But ICG states that any Chinese initiative must be "non-threatening" to both Burma's junta and the national interests of China.

"While Beijing may be induced in part by international pressure to cooperate in moving the SPDC towards national reconciliation," reads the report, "[a]greement will be needed on an agenda for change that does not threaten China's vital interests."

The report states it would be a mistake to look to mass protests as a means of producing change in Burma. "The problem for the opposition is that it simply does not have the strength to challenge the military for power. Whatever turns popular activism takes, it has inherent limitations as a tool for regime change. People power cannot defeat a united military willing to shoot," summarizes the report.

"The decisive battleground is more likely to be within elite political frameworks than in the streets, an arena that requires painstaking negotiations, unsatisfactory compromises and a willingness by individuals on all sides to settle for less so the country can have more," the report adds.

Stating that the roadmap is unfortunately the only option on the table at the moment, the report contends: "Instead of demanding that the constitutional deliberations be reopened, international efforts could focus on persuading the military to make subsequent steps of the road map real."

ICG believes its analysis as to the situation in Burma largely concurs with that of the United Nations.