Poll finds a divided and indecisive public on referendum

Christopher Smith

Friday, 02 May 2008 13:48

Chiang Mai – A new poll on the upcoming constitutional referendum reveals that a majority of the public are undecided over how to vote while feeling uninformed on the draft constitution itself. Of 416 participants in a Mizzima poll conducted by phone or personal interviews with Mizzima correspondents inside Burma, 295 prospective voters, or 71 percent, expressed the opinion that they do not understand the substance of the constitution up for vote. Additionally, and only ten days prior to the referendum, 218 members of the electorate, or 52 percent, claim they remain undecided as to how they will cast their ballot. With respect to the 186 respondents who registered an opinion as to how they expect to vote, projected support for the junta's draft constitution stands at only 38 percent, or 71 persons in favor. Opposition figures register considerably higher, at 62 percent, or 115 persons.  However, taken as a percentage of respondents committed to a 'NO' vote out of all prospective voters, confirmed opposition to the draft constitution falls to 28 percent. All 15 university students canvassed responded that they intend to vote 'NO', against a constitution widely held to have as a principle aim the continuation of the military's dominance in Burmese politics. In contrast, 23 of 42 government employees included in the survey revealed that they will vote in support of the draft constitution, with only two committed to a 'NO' vote and 17 remaining undecided.  Whereas over 50 percent of male government employees argue that they understand the contents of the constitution, only 13 percent of female government employees are of the same opinion. Eighty percent of the students polled confessed to little or no understanding of what they were being asked to vote upon.  The business community, including small shopkeepers, appears of split opinion as to what is best for the country, with the 103 representatives captured by the poll intending to take part in the referendum resulting in 11 votes in favor, 16 opposed and 76 undecided.  Turnout on May 10 does appear as though it will top 50 percent, with 268 of the 416 surveyed saying they are planning to vote, against only 49 abstentions; the remainder of those questioned remaining undecided as to their participation.  The survey called on a cross section of Burmese society, including students, professionals, government employees, laborers and housewives, as well as others. In all 218 men and 198 women are included in the survey's results. Male respondents, whether in support of, or opposition to, the draft constitution, are more decided in their opinion, with 21 percent intending to vote 'YES' against 33 percent prepared to oppose the motion. Among women, the draft constitution garnered support from only 12 percent of respondents but was also opposed by a lower figure of 22 percent.  Regions, Divisions and States incorporated into the study included Magwe, Irrawaddy, Rangoon, Mandalay, Sagaing, Rakhine and Bago. Despite widespread speculation of vote rigging, less than six percent of those contacted reported that their predicted vote is the result of government intimidation, including only two of the respondents from the government employee group. Fully 63 percent of the study group replied that they were confident in voting their conscience. < Prev   Next >