One can sense the Myanmar generals ensconced in Naypyitaw had smirks on their faces on Tuesday this week as they oversaw the trashing of their opponents ’main political party, the National League for Democracy or NLD.
With the NLD party leader Aung San Suu Kyi effectively jailed for life, the military generals believe they have put the final nail in the coffin of political opposition to military rule by using their Union Election Commission (UEC) to dissolve the party, and 39 other parties, including the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) that said it would not re-register, setting the scene for a planned election tentatively lined up for later this year or next year with the hope that a “military-leaning party” will win.
Tuesday was the deadline for political party registration or re-registration. The UEC has made it hard for political parties to register. And the NLD said it would not re-register and take part in what they call a “sham election”.
In simple terms, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and his cohorts are hoping the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party or USDP will come out top in their poll and place a democratic fig-leaf on military rule, with enough foreign governments tipping their hat to the new status quo.
With Aung San Suu Kyi incommunicado - locked up in a small house without her dog and servants, forgotten about, as far as the generals are concerned - the men in green hope their election and the military-written 2008 Constitution – plus “shock-and-awe” aerial bombing campaigns and ground offensives – will put paid to the opposition who Min Aung Hlaing labeled “terrorists” in his Armed Forces Day speech this week.
But all this has set the scene for chaos going forward, both sides entrenched in a battle for survival.
Min Aung Hlaing has yet again not realized the strength of the will of the people. In retrospect, his coup did not result in the scenario he had hoped for – protest and then a sullen acceptance - and now he is pushing ahead with a process that Myanmar people and many in the international community view as not only illegitimate but also highly disruptive.
Under the banner of the Spring Revolution the National Unity Government (NUG), People’s Defence Forces and Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations are pulling out the stops to take on the Myanmar
junta both militarily and politically, with growing support from a number of Western governments, in terms of sanctions and calls for a resolution of the conflict.
This pushback is not going to be pretty. Even the NUG is warning about the fallout if election workers are attacked and killed, with the concern that this might tarnish the opposition. Yet the Spring Revolutionaries will more than likely seek to scupper any attempt at an orderly national poll. At the same time, there are indications that the junta will step up its “fighting season” offensives and bombing attacks ahead of the monsoon season.
Clearly, the buck stops with the military junta. They are the ones who executed the illegal coup. And they are therefore responsible and hopefully will be able to be held accountable for their crimes.
That said, this is both a battle for survival and a battle for the heart of Myanmar. After decades of military rule, the Spring Revolution seeks to once and for all get rid of the rot at the centre of the Golden Land.
