No-fly-zone over Myanmar ‘impossible’ due to China’s possible reaction, says security analyst

By Mizzima
24 February 2023
No-fly-zone over Myanmar ‘impossible’ due to China’s possible reaction, says security analyst
Photo: Anthony Davis (LinkedIn)

by Penrose Thitsa 

Anthony Davis, a veteran security analyst and journalist, said that despite the Burmese junta's airstrikes against civilians, the international community is unlikely to enforce a “no-fly-zone” over Myanmar due to the diplomatic and geo-strategic complications it would cause, particularly with China's reaction. 

Davis made the remark in an online video conference on “Military Possibilities 2023 in Myanmar” and Q&A session held for about 150 Myanmar journalists, hosted by Dr Kyaw Thu and writer and activist Igor Blazevic. Davis is a British journalist with over four decades of experience covering conflicts in Asia, including Afghanistan and Burma. Davis, who is based in Bangkok, currently writes for Jane’s Information Group and Asia Times.  

Responding to a question from one of the Burmese journalists, Davis said that a “no-fly-zone” as imposed over Iraq during the second Gulf War is unlikely to happen in Myanmar in the coming years or at any time, even if the Burmese junta continue conducting major airstrikes in Myanmar.  

“There is only one power that can undertake, enforce a ‘no-fly-zone’ - that's the United States of America. That would necessitate moving a carrier battle group, an aircraft carrier battle group into the Bay of Bengal. And that would provoke a reaction from China, let alone ASEAN. Right? So, the complications of the diplomatic geostrategic complications are such that this, frankly, will not happen,” he said 

Regarding another Sino-Burmese issue, Davis said that China is super sensitive about its oil and gas pipelines in Myanmar. 

“There are no ethnic resistance organizations which have any interest in messing with China's pipelines,” he said, noting that Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) effectively had a tacit agreement that means People’s Defence Forces (PDF) will leave the pipelines alone.  

“China isn't going away. China is always going to be a crucially powerful and important neighbour and it would be counterproductive to do anything to impact their core interests.” 

He also mentioned that Russia and Myanmar have a close relationship due to their mutual need for each other at this time. He said that Russia is happy to sell weapons to Myanmar as long as they are not needed in Ukraine, and that the Myanmar military is largely isolated with the exception of support from Russia. There is also talk of economic cooperation between the two nations, but it is unlikely to happen until Myanmar can reestablish security in the country, he said. 

Davis also discussed the concept of an "arms pipeline," which refers to a consistent supply of weapons to the Myanmar resistance.  He states that he does not believe any external state would attempt to establish an arms pipeline in Myanmar. 

Responding to a question, Davis expressed doubts about the possibility of a counter-coup in Myanmar. He believes that the Myanmar army is a well-organized and disciplined unit, and such a counter-coup is unlikely unless the army are faced with a clear defeat. However, he said that if such a moment arises, it would already be too late (to hold dialogue with the opposition).  

Davis stressed that although the Myanmar military are undermanned and over-stretched, in their fight against Myanmar’s resistance forces, they should not be written off.  

“What I have always said from the beginning is it would be a very serious mistake to underestimate the strength of the military. They have spent several decades running the country, it is in their mentality that they believe that this is their country. This is an organisation that over time has built up a significant degree of cohesion, resources, and economic power,” he said. 

Davis was addressing the Myanmar journalists at an important juncture. Myanmar has just marked the second anniversary of the 1 February 2021 military coup that ousted an elected civilian government under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi. In the wake of the coup, mass protests broke out across the country, demanding the release of arrested politicians and the restoration of civilian government. But the junta has cracked down on peaceful protesters, killing and arresting thousands of people, including children. Consequently, many people of Myanmar have resorted to armed struggle against the junta because they came to believe it is the only way to protect themselves and their rights from the brutal military regime.  

The people have also witnessed the junta's use of heavy weapons against unarmed civilians, including air strikes on villages in ethnic minority areas. In response, some opposition groups have taken up arms and formed local PDFs to revolt against the junta. They see armed revolution as a necessary means to defend themselves and to fight for the restoration of democracy.