PEACE CALL FAILS: Two-pronged strategy with scorched-earth policy getting the junta nowhere 

By Sai Wansai
27 June 2022
PEACE CALL FAILS: Two-pronged strategy with scorched-earth policy getting the junta nowhere 

From the outset it was quite clear that Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's peace call on 22 April was a piecemeal intervention to lift the tremendous military and political pressures on him and his coup-maker regime to drive a wedge between the ethnic-democratic forces, rather than to strive for genuine peace, reconciliation and political settlement.

The junta peace call was directed at the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), not the National Unity Government (NUG) and the People's Defence Forces (PDF), in a move to “divide-and-rule”.

Of Myanmar's 21 EAOs, 10 EAOs which are not on a war-footing with the junta answered the call, while those actively fighting against the junta failed to respond. So far eight have already met the commander-in-chief and his State Administration Council (SAC) with two more meetings pending.

The two are the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) of which the former is being issued an ultimatum by the junta to withdraw from three military outposts in southern Shan State. It has in return rejected the demand and the junta extended the deadline from 10 June until 30 June. The reason for such demand from the junta at this point in time is unknown but it does make the intended meeting with the junta problematic, even though the SSPP has accepted the peace talks, at the time of writing the meeting is still pending.

The LDU failure to come to the meeting was said to be due to disagreement within its leadership as some wanted to go along with the junta and some not.

So far the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), New Mon State Party (NMSP), Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army/ Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC), the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), the United Wa State Party (UWSP), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) have met the commander-in-chief and SAC, with only the SSPP and LDU left to wrap it all up.

Min Aung Hlaing hoped that the remaining EAOs, especially those on a war-footing with the junta would join in. But since it has not happened as expected, he doled out another invitation on 14 June.

SOLICITING SURRENDER

Just one day before, on 13 June, the junta reached out to armed resistance organizations including the PDF in a call to enter the legal fold, a call made by the SAC Information Team in both Burmese and English in Myanmar's state-run newspapers.

Although the PDF has been labelled terrorist organizations all along by the junta, they will be allowed to return to civilian life if they willingly lay down their arms, the announcement said.

The SAC put the blame on “political adversaries and disagreements in ethnic affairs” for the country's internal armed conflicts, which it said had hampered development, and called for “unity” to heal the nation.

“Those who were persuaded by terrorist groups …. to commit acts of terrorism leading to the total destruction of the country and launch armed resistance under various names of groups including PDF .... affect the stability of the State and ensue delay on the way to democracy,” the statement said.

“Therefore, it is here announced that the organizations, including PDF, are welcomed if they enter the legal fold [to return to] their normal civilian lives by surrendering their weapons, [and] following rules and regulations to participate in future work plans of the country.”

SAC STATEMENT OF PEACE

The June 14 seven-point SAC Statement of Peace emphasizes the following:

  • the junta's proclamation that the year of 2022 is the year of peace and the Chairman of State Administration Council Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has made a peace talks invitation to the EAOs;
  • seven Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signatory EAOs and three non-signatory EAOs replied to the peace talks initiative;
  • six groups had already met with Chairman of State Administration Council in person and exchanged views on peace, multi-party democracy, establishment of a Union based on democracy and federalism, and socio-economic promotion of the locals, which have produced positive and encouraging results;
  • peace talks to continue with the remaining four groups;
  • State Administration Council to continue its work of strengthening the true and well-ordered multi-party democracy and building a Union based on democracy and federalism;
  • solutions to various topics and demands of the EAOs to be sought through brainstorming sessions; and the last paragraph writes:

“In this regard, a peace overture is made once again to NCA signatory EAOs and non-signatory EAOs that are still absent from the peace talks and they are urged to truly realize the national and regional interest. EAOs that will attend the peace dialogue are requested to send the names of the chairman or a leader who can make decisions on behalf of the chair and two members not later than 30 June 2022. EAOs are urged to join the peace process to build a peaceful Union in the interest of all the people of the Union, with the Union spirit as the core.”

TWO-PRONGED STRATEGY

Min Aung Hlaing knew that in order to turn the political tide to his favour he had to do something drastic. And in order to do this he made a second call of peace talks, originally doled out on 22 April 22, on 14 June again to woo the EAOs that have not yet taken up the offer. Earlier on June 13 he also made an announcement calling for the EAOs and PDF, particularly aiming at the latter, to enter the legal fold which in reality is to surrender. These moves are in fact a two pronged-strategy currently employed by the SAC chairman.

While the SAC soliciting the EAOs to surrender may not be effective, the junta is pinning its hopes to at least erode the strength of the NUG and PDFs by such offers. Reportedly there were a few dozen PDF troopers that have surrendered according to the junta news outlet.

According to the junta some 70 members of the PDF returned back to the legal fold. They were 24 in Mandalay Region; 13 in Magway Region; 11 in Sagaing Region; 11 in Ayeyarwady Region; 6 in Bago Region, reported Eleven Media Group on 23 June.

The junta said it would welcome any organization, including the PDF, to surrender its weapons, enter the legal fold and return to public life in accordance with the rules and regulations of the state.

“Various armed resistance groups (PDF in Kayah or Karenni State’s Demawso Township, Myingyu Township PDF in Sagaing Region, and Chinland Defence Force in Chin State) that have sworn loyalty to Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) told RFA Burmese that surrender to the junta is ‘impossible,’ citing the devastation it had wrought on the country since the 1 February 2021
takeover. Others said the military cannot be trusted and suggested that its call for surrender is a sign of weakness,” according to the recent RFA report.

Naing Htoo Aung, shadow defence secretary, said the NUG will not consider the offer because the junta is “untrustworthy.”

“It is unbelievable that these people, who are currently committing atrocities and killing innocent people and burning villages, have asked us to surrender our weapons and return to civilian life,” he said. “We all know that we cannot believe [this offer].”

SCORCHED-EARTH POLICY

The junta has also been employing a scorched-earth policy and massacres from the early stage of the coup besides its latest two-pronged strategy.

According to the RFA, nearly 20,000 houses have been razed since the military coup last February.

The junta’s invitation to surrender also came less than a week after local watchdog group Data for Myanmar issued a report which found that junta troops and military proxy groups had burned down 18,886 homes across the country between last year’s coup and the end of May 2022.

According to the report, villages in Sagaing were the hardest hit by the junta, with 13,840 houses destroyed, while those in Magway Region and Chin State came in second and third. It said that 7,146 homes were set on fire in May alone – the highest monthly figure since the coup.

According to the Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP)-Myanmar in ISP Data Matters Number 22 of 2 June 2022, in Sagaing Division (Region) 15.530 houses, buildings, and religious buildings were torched and destroyed, which amounted to 69.7 percent of the whole country. Moreover, 4.822 buildings were torched and destroyed which amounted to 21.6 percent. In Mandalay Division,
Tanintharyi Division, Bago Division, Kayah (Karenni) State, Chin State, Shan State and Karen State, no less than 1.947 buildings were torched and destroyed making it about 8.9 percent.

The ISP-Myanmar, a local think tank, said from 1 February 2021 to 26 May 2022, 22.299 houses, buildings, including religious buildings were burned and destroyed. These damages included burning during the battles and damages due to the explosion of ammunition during the fights. During April and May 2022, no less than 14.594 houses and buildings were torched and destroyed.

EXTRA-JUDICIAL KILLINGS ' MASSACRE

A year and five months after the coup, the junta has no control over the vast territories and continues to commit inhumane killings across the country, according to media reports.

In Sagaing Region and Karenni State, the military has massacred civilians, including children and women.

Last December 24, in Karenni State, Phruso Township in Moso village, at least 35 civilians were set on fire along with their vehicles.

The charred bodies were found including a 10- to 15-year-old girl's corpse.

In early May, the military arrested and killed 29 civilians in Mon Taing Pin Village, Ye-U Township, Sagaing Region. The men were 26 to 63 years old.

The RFA recently released a video recording of three soldiers in which they were boasting about the arrests and killings of the civilians in Sagaing Region.

In Sagaing Region Kani Township, the bodies of about 40 people, including a 14-year-old boy, were found, people killed in July last year.

The junta never admit to the murder of civilians including the massacres. And a year and five months after the military coup, a total  of 14,280 people have been arrested, and 11,217 are still detained, as of 24 June according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP).

The AAPP said the milestone of 2,000 deaths since the 1 February 2021 coup was reached 20 June and that recent deaths in anti-junta hotbeds Sagaing and Magway regions had pushed the figure to 2007.

The ISP Myanmar said in a report dated 12 May that it had documented at least 5,646 civilian deaths between the 1 February 2021 coup and 10 May.

The breakdown are: 1,831 killed during demonstrations and in custody; 690 during armed clashes; 3,107 killed for being informers by opposition groups, according to the statistics of the junta and the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

EAOs ON A WAR FOOTING

The primary EAOs combating the junta after the February coup last year are the Karen National Union (KNU), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), with the Arakan Army (AA) on the verge of breaking the informal ceasefire effective since November 2020 and restarting the armed conflict due to the junta's assertiveness to impose its rule and counter the AA's administration establishment in Arakan (Rakhine) State, excluding the NUG/PDF which are not classified as EAOs, but nevertheless delivering serious armed resistance combating the junta.

The ISP-Myanmar said earlier in June that it had documented more than 4,600 clashes between PDF units and the military as of 15 May. More than half of them occurred in Karen State, while the second most active area is the Sagaing Region.

KNU

The junta's second peace invitation has also been rejected by the KNU just like the first time. In addition, its spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee said the KNU may consider attending the peace talks only if the Military Council leave the political arena and be accountable for the crimes committed to date.

“The junta troops are killing and torching (people's residences and religious buildings) daily even during the rainy season. Without ending these daily killings, torching of the villages that caused the people to flee non-stop, it is meaningless to hold discussions,” Saw Taw Nee said.

“I have already said if they want to meet, they should leave the political arena. The second point is federal democracy cannot be just talks. Another point is we cannot just forgive the recent killings without end and (must invoke) transitional justice. Reparations and truth-seeking have to be undertaken without fail and they (the junta) will have to accept it,” he added.

Although the KNU has signed the NCA after the military coup last February there were more than 5,000 battles fought between the KNU and junta troops in Karen State and the former's controlled areas, according to Saw Taw Nee reported the RFA quite recently.

KIA

The KIA, which has been fighting with the Military Council in northern Shan State, Kachin State and Sagaing Region, has so far refused to accept the junta's offer, according to KIA spokesman Colonel Naw Bu reported the RFA recently.

'All I can say is that as far as I have heard, there are no changes whatsoever on our side. I can only say the same thing as we have issued statements before. That's how it is. I haven't heard anything about the change. The rest I cannot answer. '

On 5 May, the KIA announced its stance that it would attend the talks only when all stakeholders who ought to be involved were invited and able to discuss political issues on an equal footing.

Colonel Naw Bu said that there have been nearly 800 battles during the past 15 months between the junta troops and the KIA, which still hasn't yet signed the NCA.

AA

The AA, which is facing renewed military tensions with the junta in Arakan State, said it will not attend the peace talks because the junta has not acted accordingly as it has promised, reported the RFA.

“The peace talks are planned just to drive a wedge (between opposition groups against the junta) and dismantle (the opposition groups unity).”

AA spokesman Khaing Thukha told a news conference on 14 June that it remains to be seen whether the SAC chairman's invitation is to use it as a way out of the current worsening crisis or for genuine peace.

“If the dialogue is for real peace, we can say that it is a good thing. But if it is just to overcome a particular situation and to pass through a crisis and make use of peace (discussion) it is not a good sign for the people. That's why I would say that we need to wait and see whether real peace can be achieved or not.”

The AA has seen little fighting with the junta in Arakan State since the military coup, but military tensions between the two armies have been rising since the beginning of this year.

At a recent press conference, AA spokesman Khaing Thukha said that the military council has been making military preparations in Arakan State to attack the AA.

KNPP

According to an insider source the KNPP Chairman Khu Oo Reh recently said that the situation is not conducive to peace negotiations. Not that he is for war, but until there are international witnesses, peace talks organized by the junta under its own agenda won't work.

On June 19, Kantarawaddy Times released a radio report on the junta's peace talks overtures and also the announcement soliciting the EAOs and PDF to surrender interviewing the Karenni NationalDefence Force (KNDF), the Karenni Revolutionary Union (KRU) and KNPP spokesmen, without mentioning their names.

The KNDF spokesman said that they were fighting to get rid of the military dictatorship, and won't be open to either peace talks, any kind of discussion, or surrender.

The KRU spokesman said that they wouldn't respond to the junta's overtures, as they have sacrificed a lot and have also invested a lot in the revolution. They would never surrender and their aim is to uproot the military dictatorship system and would strive for it until it is achieved.

The KNPP spokesman said that the junta's peace call and announcement of surrender are political attacks and aimed at driving a wedge between the opposition groups. It is a kind of political offensive to make the PDF surrender and weaken them. All have to be on guard and not to deviate from the original aim and political goals, he said.

The KRU, KNDF and all the PDFs were formed a few months after the military overthrew the civilian government. But the KNPP took up the armed struggle over 70 years ago and its armed wing, the Karenni Army, is trying to convince splinter groups to join them in the struggle against the regime, according to the Kantarawaddy Times 8 May report.

OUTLOOK

The first primary goal of the junta is to woo the EAOs fighting actively against the junta to its side, but this is not working. The second initiative of soliciting surrender, which particularly has been aimed at the PDF, is also not bearing fruit. The third usually employed decades-long effective policy or strategy of threatening and intimidating the population into submission by the junta's scorched- earth and massacre has also failed this time around to cow the newly-emerged PDF resistance groups and the people at large.

Basically, all EAOs on a war-footing, such as the KIA, KNU, and KNPP, don't trust the junta and see the commander-in-chief's peace call as a piecemeal, short-term way out of the present debacles for himself and his SAC, which are surrounded by multitude of EAOs, PDF and local resistance groups countrywide – a dire situation that has never been seen before.

As such, except for the EAOs in Shan State and the AA in Arakan State, the junta has to use all its resources to defend its position and stay in power.

Even then, the AA is on the verge of restarting the war with the junta, as the latter is on the brink of losing its cool trying to swallow its pride in the face of AA's administration establishment expanding rapidly in Arakan State. At this writing, both parties are busy arresting administrative functionaries of one another in a tit-for-tat manner, heating up military tension, which could ignite into a full-blown war at any time.

The second initiative of soliciting surrender isn't working as the PDF and EAOs on a war-footing are determined to uproot the military dictatorship for a system change and even more so because the junta has acted like a thuggish, mafioso-like regime and lost all legitimacy to rule in their eyes.

The decades-long third strategy of scorched-earth and massacre also failed to cow the people and resistance groups, PDF and EAOs alike. The mindset of the people is that their vision of the future means an end to the junta and military so that a new federal democratic union may become a reality and they are ready to sacrifice all they have to achieve this goal.

In sum, the junta's two-pronged strategy and the intimidation built on scorched-earth, extra-judicial killings and massacres may only hasten their downfall as they struggle to hang on to power.