Always put “breaking news” into context. Connect the dots to understand what is actually happening.

So let me highlight a few dots when it comes to troubled Myanmar:

Yesterday, on Monday, in a meeting of the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) the military regime extended the country’s state of emergency and the term of the junta led by Min Aung Hlaing (MAH) for another six months.

This is bad news for MAH. This is an admission that the “extraordinary situation” of losing the control over 50 per cent of the territory of Myanmar to determined and popular resistance is actually becoming an ordinary situation, one in which he is bombing and burning villages in the heart of Myanmar.

MAH has promised to his domestic constituencies and to his international supporters (India, China, Thailand) that he will hold “elections” and that “elections” will produce legitimate, civilian government. This would mean that MAH and his gang will put some civilian clothes over their uniforms and declare themselves a “civilian” government.

However, MAH is not even able to organize such theatre of manipulated, sham elections. So, he needs to create the illusion of some other “exit path” from what most diplomats and media call the “Myanmar crisis”, but in reality is a war of terror which a Spartan predatory military is waging war against the civilian population in order to keep control over the country’s natural resources.

Fake illusion of possible “negotiations” and some illusion of possible “ceasefire and peace process” is this new narrative which MAH needs to put in place instead of sham elections that he is not able to hold.

There is also another important don’t.

ASEAN will have its next Summit in September. Again, MAH needs to give something to his allies within ASEAN (Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Lao) as an argument to use during preparation of the Summit and Summit itself, so that they can help him muddle through the Indonesian chairmanship. Next year Laos is the ASEAN chair. Min Aung Hlaing hopes that this will give more space for Thailand and China to legitimize the “1.5 dialogue” as an ASEAN strategy for Myanmar. The “1.5 track” is just a disguised code for an effort to accept the junta back into ASEAN as the de facto government of Myanmar against the will of the people of the country.

So, between these dots: extending the state of emergency; ASEAN Summit in September and a need to offer some other fake “exit from crisis” narrative, the junta has today, on Tuesday, just a day after announcing extension of the state emergency, announced a “clemency” for imprisoned civilian leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint.

Several important points are quickly lost in the hype of the “breaking news”.

First of all, Aung San Suu Kyi’s and Win Myint’s sentences have not been pardoned. They have been “commuted”. Commutation should not be confused with pardoning. Commutation is just reducing the sentence and “postponing” it. It can be reactivated any time on similarly bogus accusations as the original charges have been.

Second, the alleged “clemency” will not pardon Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint for all of the alleged offences. It will merely reduce their sentences - and insignificantly so compared to their original sentences.

Aung San Suu Kyi is 78 years old. She was sentenced to 33 years based on completely bogus charges in 19 different cases. This is a life sentence in disguise. Now, after “clemency” which will be now be pedaled by the junta propagandists and allies, Aung San Suu Kyi will still be 78 years old and her sentence will be “reduced” (actually just “postponed”) by six years after five cases were “pardoned”. The sentence is now 27 years. Nothing too much has changed. This is still a life sentence in disguise.

This is all just manipulative, hostage diplomacy. A game of numbers.

Substance is the same: Illegitimate military gang in uniforms is still bombing the nation and waging the war of terror in order to consolidate its so far failed power grab. Illegitimate military gang in uniforms is still keeping Aung San Suu Kyi, Win Myint and far more than tens of thousands others illegally arrested as bargaining cards for its hostage diplomacy with international players.

Reduction of completely illegitimate, cruel and inhuman sentences does not change anything substantially. It’s just meant to confuse people and internationals. It is meant to create the illusion that the junta is ready to change course, an argument which junta allies in ASEAN and the international community may use to try to legitimize the military regime.

“Breaking news” about clemency for imprisoned civilian leaders is just a tactic to divert attention from the extension of the state of emergency.

For that reason, beware of the fallacy of “breaking news”. Always put it in context to understand what is actually happening.