It surprised everybody when news of ceasefire between the Myanmar military junta and United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) was suddenly made public last week, as the war of words to match the fighting on the ground have been in heightening, prompting concern about escalation rather than de-escalation.
AA Spokesman Khaing Thuka said that since 24 November, there were no more armed engagement between the AA and the Myanmar military junta, according to three local media houses.
On 26 November, concerning the ceasefire, AA Spokesman Khaing Thuka told Narinjara News: “There is no agreement in writing. It means only that both sides will stop within 24 hours in areas they’ve presently reached or located. Within 24 hours means until tomorrow morning, all fighting will be stopped.”
“Mainly, we aim to resolve the difficulties and crises that the people of Rakhine are currently facing, and carry out a humanitarian ceasefire arrangement. At the moment, the harvesting time for the main food supply has arrived, so we seriously thought of it for the people to carry out a humanitarian ceasefire,” he added.
He claimed that the AA’s political positions had not changed, saying: “Despite the current ceasefire, our political position will not change. It will remain as it was originally.”
Regarding the ceasefire between the AA and the Military Council, U Pe Than, a former member of the Pyithu Hluttaw of Myebon Township, said: “I see the ceasefire as a good sign at the moment. I am talking about the present situation. Because the villagers and the people are suffering a lot. The Military Council is firing heavy weapons into the villages and people are being killed and injured every day. Another thing is that they have cut off food supplies and medicines. Civilians have been arrested. They are doing a lot of investigations and interrogations of the people. They are also putting them in jail and so on. The people are suffering a lot from the negative impact of this war. Thus, if the ceasefire is genuine the fighting will cease, the situation will gradually improve and the people will be able to breath easily.”
U Oo Hla Saw, a leading member of the United League of Arakan (ULA), said that it is good to make military and political decisions only after solving the problems of the people, according to the RFA recent report.
He said: “As the people are not directly involved in the fighting, the stopping of armed engagement is a welcome aspect either from a religious or social point of view. The political problems can be resolved later and even (resume) fighting each other again. The people of Rakhine will be happy if the restrictions that have been blocked or restricted will be opened, and they will breathe a little easier.”
In the same RFA report, U Pe Than said that it could be that the ULA/AA cannot bear to see the hardship and tragedy of the Arakan people and had agreed to the ceasefire arrangement.
U Pe Than said that the junta is like the demon in mythology who doesn’t care that a child will be hurt by pulling it mercilessly with intention to cause damage. But the ULA/AA is like a real mother who has the heart of tender mother and let go for she can’t bear to hear the suffering sound of her child.
“In this sense at the moment, I see that ULA/AA has taken into consideration the voices of the people and given priority to the voices of those who are in trouble and crying,” he said.
U Pe Than also said that the ceasefire has given the Military Council, which is under military pressure, a breather.
In Rakhine State, the junta’s army and the Rakhine Army (AA) fought for more than four months and in these four months, 33 local people were killed and 79 injured, according to the RFA report.
Meanwhile, the junta has allowed some waterways to operate which were closed for months after the recent ceasefire agreement.
An official of the Shwe Pyitan Line told Western News: “At the moment, we are allowed to operate by sea, but we are allowed to operate to Rathedaung and Buthidaung. We have not yet received permission to operate to Mrauk U, Pauktaw, and Minbya.”
It is not yet known whether Ann Township’s Dalet River group will be allowed to operate and also whether the waterways going to the Palatwa side of Chin State will be reopened.
Mediators
Mr. Sasakawa, the Japanese government’s special representative for national reconciliation, is in Myanmar and there are reports that he is mediating between the AA and the Military Council Army, but it has not been confirmed yet, according to recent RFA report.
But an insider source with deep knowledge of Myanmar’s peace process, as participant and observer, quoting news coming from UN Dhaka said that Sasakawa initiated the mediation since starting back in 1 November. Reportedly, he was in Burma since 25 November and his assistant Yuji Mori since 23 November, according to one of the media reports.
The same source said that the ceasefire is conditional in that the humanitarian needs of the people must be addressed to allow the transport of rice, medicine and other needy supplies to flow; stop arbitrary arrests of the people; and allow ULA courts to operate without interference by the junta.
In addition, the source said no statements will be released out of respect to alliance partners and friends such as the National Unity Government (NUG), as AA does not want alliance members to become frustrated and also it doesn’t believe it will hold much longer.
The rational of it is a humanitarian ceasefire, as this is the harvest time which is very important to the citizens. However, this season harvest yield will be very low – seeing a 30 percent drop - due to the lack of water and inability to plant.
The two sides, AA and junta, have been holding talks quietly for some time. Also, the Rakhine political parties had held virtual meetings with AA leader Twan Mrat Naing and his deputy Nyo Twan Aung. The politicians told them if they kept on fighting, no matter who wins, the Rakhine people will be the losers, the insider source said.
According to a recent Myanmar Now report, AA spokesman Khaing Thukha said that the ceasefire was agreed upon through intermediaries, but did not reveal the name of the organizations involved.
But on 28 November, he confirmed in a virtual press conference: “Some intermediaries have stepped in a tried to work (on a ceasefire). Frankly speaking, we can say this matter came about with the mediation of the Nippon Foundation Chairman Mr Sasakawa.”
On 25 November, Hideo Watanabe, president of the Japan-Myanmar Friendship Association, visited Naypyitaw and held a meeting with the deputy coup leader.
In commemoration of the recent National Day, hundreds of people were awarded honorary credentials by
the Military Council, along with some Russian military figures, including the president of the Japan-Myanmar Friendship Association, Hideo Watanabe, who was awarded the title of Thiri Pyanchi.
On the same day as the president of the Japan-Myanmar Friendship Association, the Director General of the Border Guard Force of Bangladesh and the Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar also arrived in Naypyitaw and held a meeting with the Military Council officials.
“Right now, the informal ceasefire means that if the ceasefire is confirmed, we must continue to negotiate for the release of the people who have been arrested and not to arrest the people. Since there are arbitrary killings, shootings with heavy weapons and such things, we consider for the people first, and then take informal humanitarian action. There will be no time limit and it will depend on the compliance of both sides. An informal ceasefire depends mainly on compliance by both sides. We have negotiated through intermediaries,” AA spokesperson Khaing Thukha said, according to the Western News.
Analysis
Given such a political development, it is highly unlikely that durable ceasefire will stick.
The free flow of humanitarian aid cargo; stopping arbitrary arrests of the people, including the release of those detained; and allowing ULA courts to operate without interference by the junta will not be an easy task for the junta to accommodate, especially the last conditional demand of ceasefire.
Another thing is it will all depend on how the opposing troops operate and behave on the ground, and given the unruly and undisciplined nature of the junta’s troops, it will prove to be a daunting task.
But for the time being it can be taken as a win-win situation as both parties need a respite, especially the junta as it has to fight almost all over the country against ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) or ethnic resistance organizations (EROs), people’s defence forces (PDFs) and assorted local defence forces (LDFs).
However, the Arakan people will definitely welcome such a humanitarian ceasefire pause, even if the prospect of durable peace may be hard to achieve.
Sai Wansai for Mizzima
