Myanmar’s military junta needs to be careful when taking its next steps in trying to reengage with the international community. The Financial Action Task Force (a G-7 institution) recently recommended that Myanmar be immediately blacklisted for terrorism financing. Not only does this further damage it is already low credibility, but it is also another of the many setbacks for the military junta as it seeks foreign aid.
Adding fuel to the fire are the outcomes from the 20th Party Congress in China. The China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and other participating Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects need to take stock of China’s trajectory that has now been set. For Myanmar, CMEC emerges as an economic and political inflection point as the geo-political context for Xi Jinping’s China has been laid.
The use of the phrase “Xi Jinping’s China” is not used lightly, particularly as China has reversed itself into the Personality Cult leadership associated with Mao Zedong. We all know that the “Cultural Revolution” and the ‘Great Leap Forward” under Mao ended badly not just for China, but also for those who had engaged with China at the time. Will the reincarnation of the Maoist approach be the beginning of the end for initiatives such as the CMEC?
There are a number of key indicators that give greater clarity to the new rules of engagement with China. These rules are going to make it almost impossible for business or political leaders to politely sit on the geo-political fence and will increasingly be forced to make a choice as to what political order it will follow. Clearly emerging from the Congress is that China is rapidly shifting to one of doing things Xi’s way or being shown the door. As with autocracies built around a personality, it will increasingly place a heavy social and moral burden on relationships.
Hu Jintao’s public and physical removal from the Congress is a direct message that Xi will not tolerate any form of dissent or criticism of China under his rule – particularly from international partners. It was a message that was directed at the global audience, particularly as the incident was not broadcast live on domestic CCTV but was only carried to the international audience. The way Hu’s ejection was done and
the responses from those immediately around Xi show that this was a planned and premeditated action rather than having anything to do with Hu’s health.
In the selection of the new Politburo cadres, the agenda has been set around two, yet complementary, strategic directions. Furthermore, it should be noted that this signals Xi Jinping’s intent to increasingly go it alone, driven by the flawed notion that the USA and West have failed the world community and that the time is now right for China to lead in the creation of a Global Socialist Collective based on Marxism enhanced by Xi Jinping.
When looking at key appointments, it can be deduced that the policy direction that will be pursued, focus on: “Economic Dual Circulation” to make China self-reliant and the other is extension of the 2018 strategy based on “Military Civil Fusion”.
It is likely that Li Qiang , a staunch Xi ally and current party secretary of Shanghai will likely become China's next premier and be the key driver of the economy and the Dual Circulation strategy. To get a feel for what we can expect can be seen in the actions taken by Li in applying the zero-Covid policy in Shanghai. He was responsible for putting the country's richest and most atypically free and open financial capital Shanghai into a two-month-long, hellish Covid lockdown. It has been suggested in some quarters that the zero-covid policy has less to do with the pandemic but more to do with preparing the Chinese for a period of international isolation without access to life’s basics.
The other the appointment that will have a more direct impact on CMEC, is that of Wang Huning. Wang is the master mind and conductor in piecing China’s world mosaic together. Having developed the conceptual framework for the following: The “China Dream,” anti-corruption campaigns, the Belt and Road Initiative and “Xi Jinping Thought,” he is likely to build the “Military- Civil Fusion” mosaic that will deliver China world dominance. CMEC becomes a strategic part in projecting China’s military power under the guise of building a common human destiny for all.
Whilst it is argued that Chinese politics has always been brutal, the new politburo haven have risen to the top not on merit but by their loyalty to Xi. They were never very popular in the party and have taken their positions by catering to hardliners and using the surveillance state against opponents and dissenters. CMEC gives them a level of control over the Myanmar military, and at the end of the day, the citizens of Myanmar will pay the price. Whilst Myanmar has a lower rating than China in terms of World Happiness Rankings, China is still seen as the saddest place in East Asia. By comparison, countries in Europe rank as the happiest –
the question to be answered is whether Myanmar wants to lose access to these markets in Europe or allow the CMEC under Xi Jinping Thought to take this away from them?
CMEC, as with all other BRI projects, will be used to support Xi’s public display of raw power and control. It plays to the narrative that only he (Xi) has the ability to end China’s years of humiliation and restore China Pride through the creation of an international socialist collective. Is Myanmar ready for this?
A Final Consideration: Xi Jinping’s China will not only consolidate western opinion but will escalate the development of a “dual global geo-political and economic order.” The choice for Myanmar is whether it sees itself in the China led trade / political ecosystem defined by Marxism and the collective or do they see their future in the “western Liberal democracy ecosystem.” CMEC inevitably delivers the China ecosystem.
Andre Wheeler for Mizzima
