Ashley South 

In the absence of a legitimate state in Myanmar following the 1 February 2021 coup, political sovereignty reverts to the nations that were yoked together as a colony of British India in the nineteenth century. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), new state-level bodies and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) have key roles to play in building a new Burma based on these proto-states, from the “bottom up.” 

Before the coup, the challenge in Myanmar was to federalize a relatively unified - albeit deeply contested - state, following decades of conflict. Since the military takeover, the challenge is to rebuild Burma through a new federating process.

The disruptions of climate change will further drive fragmentation of the state. In the absence of credible and legitimate central authorities – with the SAC junta pillaging the country - EAOs and CSOs are key climate change actors. Together with indigenous communities, they have globally important roles to play in adapting to and mitigating climate change through nature-based solutions. 

Federalising and federating processes 

Like “peace”, “federalism” means different things to different stakeholders. Calls for “genuine federalism” are widespread. However, the concept has not always been clearly articulated.

Technically, federalism means a mixed sovereignty system of government, dividing power and authority between a central (Federal/Union) and local (State/Region) governments. In post-coup Myanmar, a new type of federalism is emerging from the ‘bottom-up’, out of EAO and state-based systems - many of which have been established for decades, but have re-renewed political relevance. Indeed, post-coup Myanmar is experiencing a “federating moment” unprecedented since independence. 

The February 1947 Panglong Conference can be seen as such a federating moment, in which leaders from - but not necessarily fully representative of - Shan, Chin and Kachin nations came together to form an independent union after the withdrawal of British colonial power. The 1947 constitution of the Union of Burma, promulgated a few months after the Panglong Conference, was federalist in appearance but centralising in practice – not least, because the Rangoon government retained budgetary control over ethnic States. Over 75 years later, federalism needs to be re-negotiated to create a genuine federal union.

Previous attempts to achieve federalism in Burma failed due to lack of political will on the part of the military, and successive central governments (and to a lesser degree, due to the lack of clear strategy on the part of ethnic nationality leaders). These issues were evident long before the November 2020 elections and February 2021 coup. 

Like its military predecessors, the National League for Democracy (NLD), which ruled on Myanmar Army sufferance from 2016-20, paid little attention to ethnic nationality concerns and demands. The NLD oversaw a peace process begun by the previous U Thein Sein military-backed regime, leading to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) of October 2015. However, the NCA process was largely discredited and stagnating by the time of the coup. 

Following the coup, EAOs such as the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organisation, Karenni Nationalities Progressive Party and Chin National Front have been at the forefront of resisting the SAC junta, together with hundreds of newly formed Peoples Defence Forces (PDFs). Key EAOs have expanded their territorial control, liberating scores of bases from hard-pressed Myanmar Army forces. More than a dozen of the longer-established EAOs - some fighting the SAC, some not - provide basic health and education services, access to justice and emergency relief to millions of vulnerable people in conflict-affected areas.

Ethnic nation or state-based federalism? 

Since the coup, new state-based political coordination and governance bodies have emerged across the country, redefining the meaning of resistance and self-determination in Myanmar. Mostly conceived in relation to geographic territories – rather than the more narrowly-defined ethnic communities mobilised by EAOs – these are potentially the most inclusive polities in the country’s history. 

State-based bodies have been established in Kachin (the first), Mon, Karenni, Chin and Shan States, and in Tanintharyi, Irrawaddy and Sagaing regions. In some areas, similar roles are played by Peoples Administrative Bodies (PAB) - especially in Bama-majority districts where EAOs mostly do not operate. In their liberated areas of Sagaing, Magwe and elsewhere, some PDFs and PABs have assumed responsibilities for law enforcement, relief and education provision, often - but not always - under the guidance of the NUG. 

A Critical Juncture: struggles for climate justice in Myanmar

The disruptions of climate change will drive further fragmentation of the state of Myanmar - which was never perceived as legitimate by many ethnic nationality citizens, especially those in conflict-affected areas. Climate change also provides opportunities to explore new political structures and sovereignties. Local actors are already working on a range of adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, they face serious challenges in the face of continued SAC attacks on the environment and civilian communities.

In March 2023 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change) issued its 2023 Climate Change Synthesis Report, stating that:

“Human-caused climate change … has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected.”

Impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the Niño weather event in 2023-24. The window of opportunity to address these challenges is rapidly closing.

In the next few year, global temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (breaking the goal set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement) - exposing the world with further extreme weather patterns, including increased incidence of droughts and floods across Southeast Asia. Low-income countries will be particularly hard hit, especially those already facing humanitarian (man-made and natural) disasters.

Myanmar bears little responsibility for the climate crises affecting the region and the planet. Historically, as one of the most under-developed countries in Asia, Burma has played a very minor role in producing the carbon dioxide emissions driving climate change. Nevertheless, the country is highly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. The new ab-normal includes global pandemics such as Covid-19.

Climate Change Impacts in Myanmar 

National daily average temperatures rose 0.25°C per decade between 1981 and 2010 (maximum temperatures increasing by 0.4°C per decade). This trend is expected to continue, with communities across Myanmar reporting unusually high temperatures and inconsistent rainfall in 2022-23. 

There is a lack of climate data Myanmar, especially since the coup. However, a rare recent study (Tun Oo et al 2023) notes that: 

“The southwest monsoon has arrived later and departed earlier with heavier rainfall and harsher weather… Sea levels are rising in coastal areas, and there has also apparently been an increase in saltwater intrusion onto farmlands… since the year 2000, cyclones now occur almost annually compared to once every three years on average in preceding decades”.

Flooding is the most frequent hazard in Myanmar. An estimated 28 million people live in districts with a high risk of flood exposure - especially in coastal areas, along the Ayeyarwady River and in Karen State. 

According to my research, farmers in Karen and Kachin States, the Dry Zone and elsewhere are beginning to notice impacts on rice and other crops. High temperatures and erratic rainfall are affecting yields, with serious implication for food security. 

EAOs and Climate Change in Myanmar 

Several longer-established EAOs have developed progressive forest management practices and policies, often with the support of CSOs. The peoples and EAOs of Myanmar demonstrate great resilience in the face of natural and man-made disasters. This is due to and reflected in social bonds of mutual trust and solidarity, and participation in ethnolinguistic and faith-based networks (forms of ‘social capital’). 

Globally, the roles of non-state armed groups have been overlooked in relation to climate change. The roles of EAOs (not ‘Non-State Armed Groups’) in relation to climate change in Myanmar are particularly important following the coup. 

The SAC junta has issued new logging and mining concessions, threatening forest and other natural resources at a time when the world is turning towards these “green assets” to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Meanwhile, EAOs control extensive territory, including some of the most important remaining forests in mainland Southeast Asia. For generations, these forests and other natural resources have been sustainably managed by resilient local communities, in line with customary laws and practices which help to conserve unique habitats and eco-systems and sustainable local livelihoods. 

Nevertheless, most EAOs have been involved in logging, mining and other environmentally destructive practices - which continue to this day. To be credible custodians of globally important forests and biodiversity hotspots, EAOs need to demonstrate improved governance and stewardship of natural resources. Deforestation is a major driver of climate change, so EAOs must act responsibility and adopt sustainable and transparent forestry practices.

Adaptation 

As political authorities, EAOs and state-based bodies have responsibilities and opportunities to support communities in adapting to the impacts of climate change. Working in partnership with CSOs and technical experts, EAOs can take the lead in identifying future livelihoods and food/human security stresses, and useful local adaptations.

Globally, research shows that the top-down, centralized model of working with states on climate action is often ineffective, especially in conflict-affected contexts. Localisation is essential to effective adaptation and mitigation, and is central to good practice in Disaster Risk Reduction. Furthermore, the federal principle of ‘subsidiarity’ (decision-making and resources at the most local level practicable) supports localisation of climate change action in the Myanmar context. 

A major component of adaptation will be working with farmers to identify which crops and farming techniques are most suitable. This may include new types of agricultural production, different varieties of rice and other crops, and technologies of planting and harvesting. In addition to climate change-adapted agriculture, key elements of future sustainability will include new off-grid solar and hydro-power technologies for local energy production and livelihoods. 

Mitigating climate change 

Myanmar contains the largest forest reserves in mainland Southeast Asia – from Kachin State in the north to Tanintharyi in the south (areas under the control of the KIO and KNU respectively). These forests are crucial to mitigating climate change in the region and globally, helping to reduce the risks of massive future temperature changes. 

The 2022 COP-26 climate conference in Glasgow focused attention on the importance of conserving old-growth forests, and the huge contribution of carbon draw-down to climate change mitigation, as trees remove CO2 from the air through photosynthesis. According to IPCC member, Professor Paulo Artaxo Neto, there is “no cheaper, easier, and faster way to reduce CO2 emissions than by reducing tropical deforestation."

Far from being marginal regions, the ethnic homelands of Burma are at the centre of global struggle to address climate change - as well as leading Myanmar’s struggle against the SAC. We must act to conserve these extraordinary landscapes and nations.

The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Mizzima Media Group.

This article is based on Ashley South, 'Conflict, Complexity and Climate Change: emergent federal systems in post-coup Myanmar' (Chiang Mai University RCSD - International Development Research Centre 2023).

https://rcsd.soc.cmu.ac.th/publications/conflict-complexity-climate-change/