The Arakan Army (AA)/United League of Arakan, (ULA) said that the current ceasefire in Rakhine State could break down at any time, and if it does and there is fighting there will be no elections. 

The comment was made by the AA/ULA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha at a AA/ULU press conference on 28 February, in response to junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s trip to Rakhine State on 26 and 27 February 2023. 

On that trip, when speaking to a group of businessmen at Ottama Hall in Rakhinhe State’s Sittwe, Min Aung Hlaing said that he wants to see elections carried out in Rakhine State and that the junta would make a real effort to ensure elections are carried out throughout Rakhine State. 

In the 2020 elections, voting was cancelled in most townships in Rakhine State, meaning that about three-quarters of the eligible voters in the state did not get to cast a vote. The cancellation of votes denied the ANP from an absolute majority in the Rakhine State Parliament and gave the NLD a larger majority in the national parliament. 

In response, four days after the 2020 election, both the AA and Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) released coordinated statements calling for the cancelled elections in Rakhine State to be held. 

But cooperation between the AA and the Tatmadaw stopped after the February 2021 coup and there were frequent clashes between them until they signed a temporary ceasefire on 26 November 2022. 

According to the Rakhine politician, U Pe Than, ever since the ceasefire between the junta and the AA in Rakhine State, the junta has been talking about holding state-wide elections in Rakhine. 

He said: “There is currently a ceasefire between the Arakan Army-ULA/AA and the Myanmar Army in Rakhine State. At the press conference, the ULA/AA spokesperson U Khaing Thukha said that although the situation is currently stable, the ceasefire could be broken at any time. If the fighting returns, there will be no reason to hold an election in the state. Also, Rakhine people are not interested in elections.”  

U Khaing Thukha also said at the press conference that elections cannot help the Rakhine people or change their lives. He also said that if fighting continues to be intense in Rakhine State and if people continue to be arrested the election will not be happening. 

The junta is expected to hold elections in August. In February the junta extended the State of Emergency until August because it claimed that the situation in the country was too volatile.  Elections can only be held when there is no longer a State of Emergency, but U U Pe Than warned that the junta could easily just extend the State of Emergency, which would further delay any elections.