The Myanmar junta generals will be viewing with unease the surprise end to a year-long ceasefire in Rakhine State as the Arakan Army (AA) opens new fronts in the wake of last month’s Operation 1027 in northern Shan State.

On Monday 13 November, in a surprise move, AA fighters clashed with security forces in Rathedaung, Maungdaw, and Minbya townships in Rakhine State, the AA said in a statement – an offensive that ended the fragile peace in the western state.

AA fighters seized an outpost of the border police at Chinkhali in Rakhine state on 14 November, and also attacked military outposts on two hills in Paletwa Township in neighbouring Chin State, an AA spokesman said. In Paletwa the military had responded with air strikes and heavy artillery fire and the fighting. Local media also reported the clashes in Paletwa Township and said two women had been killed by artillery fire.

The AA has for years fought a war for the autonomy of the state's ethnic Rakhine population, and has a presence in neighbouring Chin State.

There was a heavy military security presence on the streets in the Rakhine capital Sittwe last week, with police blocking roads to the airport and the local court.

Northern Offensive

Last month the AA launched a joint offensive with two other ethnic armed groups under the name Operation 1027 across a swathe of northern Shan State near the China border.

The AA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have blocked two vital trade routes to China and seized a vital border crossing.

The fighting in the north - which the United Nations says has displaced more than 50,000 civilians - has sparked the most significant military challenge to the junta since it seized power in 2021, analysts say.

Now this new resistance front in Rakhine and Chin states poses serious concerns for the Myanmar junta, yet it also raises questions over AA’s ability to operate over a wide front.

Stretched Junta

Renewed hostilities in Rakhine State are bad news for Myanmar’s over-stretched military forces, in a state that includes Khaukpyu deep-sea port, a crucial hub for Myanmar and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).

Resistance forces are actively fighting in ethnic states, including Shan, Kachin, Karen, Karenni and Chin, and in the Bamar heartland including Sagaing and Magway. The now-broken AA-junta ceasefire was viewed as a benefit to Naypyidaw. Now it is shattered.

Junta forces have been fighting back. On Thursday, junta troops shelled the town of Pauktaw and shot at it from helicopters after AA fighters seized the police station, residents said.

The military took control of the town later Thursday, and on Friday, local media cited residents saying that around 50 people had been detained and an unknown number were feared dead. Thousands had already fled the town of around 20,000 people, the residents said. The UN now puts the number at over 26,000.

The junta has said its forces have taken control of the town but gave no details on casualties or deaths.

The AA said on Thursday that an unspecified number of "civilians of Pauktaw" had been killed by the military after troops entered the town. It pledged to "retaliate".

The junta on Wednesday claimed the AA was "destroying its Rakhine people and regional development" following the AA attacks on security forces.

It remains to be seen how this will play out and whether this Rakhine action is a bridge too far for the AA.

Reporting: Mizzima, AFP