Sun Lin

China's stand on Myanmar has always been very complex and multi-faceted. More than two years have passed since the coup, yet there are no indications of the Tatmadaw holding elections in the country. China has done little to pressure the military junta to hold elections, although it has been a major ally and arms supplier to the internationally isolated junta. It has no intention of pressuring the military junta to end violence against pro-democracy groups and restore a democratically elected government.

The recently held meeting between China’s ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai and the Myanmar junta’s deputy prime minister and home affairs minister Soe Htut has proved the real intention of China with regard to the ruling junta.

In the meeting Chen Hai called on the junta to step up security cooperation with his country, including collaboration between the two police forces. Chinese ambassador made an appeal for cooperation when he met the junta’s deputy prime minister and home affairs minister Soe Htut. The two sides discussed security matters, border issues, and future cooperation. There was no discussion on how Myanmar’s junta should end its bloody crackdown on pro-democracy opponents. The development has raised suspicion over China’s soft approach towards the military junta.

Chen Hai also urged home minister Soe Htut to step up efforts to combat cross-border crime, online fraud, and gambling, according to the South China Morning Post. In Myanmar, Chinese-run criminal gangs based near the Thai border have been operating telecoms scams and luring workers from China by promising high-paying jobs. However, Chen Hai was more concerned about such illegal activities as they harmed the interests and safety of Chinese people and undermined social stability and order. China urged Myanmar to take the matter seriously and work closely with China to combat the crimes and create a “clean” environment for friendly cooperation between the two countries, South China Morning Post reported.

Aung Zaw, editor of the Irrawaddy said in a commentary that the latest proactive approach by China on Myanmar was prompted by the US’s growing influence. The US has stepped up its engagement with Myanmar’s shadow government and signalled a willingness to support the democratic opposition and ethnic armed groups. But is China adopting the right strategy” asks Aung Zaw in his commentary.

China’s newly appointed special envoy Deng Xijun has visited Myanmar twice since December. He met coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw. He also held separate meetings with representatives of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP), the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). These ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have been under the sway of China and three of them—the KIA, TNLA and MNDAA—based in northeast Myanmar’s Shan State have been actively fighting the regime.

However, China has expressed its desire to talk to the regime and bring an end to the fighting along the border. The ethnic armed groups appreciated Beijing’s efforts stating that they “welcomed China’s mediation role in Myanmar’s internal conflict” and promised to work with it. This is all music to the ears of the regime leaders in Naypyitaw, says Aung Zaw.

According to him, several theories have been doing the rounds over these developments. One theory is that the Chinese special envoy promised the Myanmar junta it would bring about a deescalation of military tensions in northern Shan State, where China is eager to build the Ruili-Mandalay railroad. The Chinese envoy told ethnic rebels from the north to stop fighting along the border. 

Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG) recently opened an office in Washington. While there was no such office in the Chinese capital, NUG officials have reached out to Chinese officials in Beijing and Yunnan Province. The NUG was among an alliance of prodemocracy forces and EAOs that sent a congratulatory message to the Communist Party of China and the Chinese people during the party’s 20th National Congress in October 2022.

Another theory is that the Chinese special envoy’s shuttling between the regime leader and ethnic armed groups in the north was in response to the Burma Act, part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) recently passed by the United States Congress. The Burma Act authorizes funds and technical assistance for anti-junta forces in Myanmar, including EAOs. China doesn’t want to see the spread of Western influence on its border and will intervene to block it. The powerful Wa leaders pledged to support the NUG, and the MNDAA has been providing arms and training to the NUG and PDF forces since last year. The regime in Naypyitaw wants to split this growing alliance—and to achieve that it needs China’s support.

The Irrawaddy editor has raised questions over China’s intentions. China has begun shifting gears, moving towards more explicit support for the criminal regime in Naypyitaw. Historically, China has always been on the wrong side in Myanmar, supporting and working with regimes that the Myanmar people loathe. More importantly, China’s investment projects in the country have always been unpopular. Unless it changes its priorities, China can’t win in Myanmar, Aung Zaw concludes.

China’s past record has raised suspicion over China’s see-saw on Myanmar. While China distanced itself from Myanmar’s military regime following the coup in February 2021, but bilateral relations have improved significantly since Beijing appointed a new special envoy Deng Xijun to Myanmar in December who has been busy brokering talks between the junta and powerful ethnic armed
organizations along the border. In his meeting, the special envoy said that his country wants to resume its projects in Myanmar and make new investments even as the international community imposes tighter sanctions.

China’s traditional emphasis on non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, concerns about maintaining stability in its own border regions, and a desire to protect its economic and strategic interests in Myanmar have prevented China from not taking action against the military junta as well working to try to prevent other countries including the ASEAN bloc from taking a tough stand on Myanmar.

Sun Lin is a pseudonym for a writer who specializes in covering Myanmar and Asia.