The Myanmar military likes to portray itself as a formidable fighting force, armed with a plethora of weapons, said to be protecting the motherland. But the reality, according to analysts, is that cracks are appearing in the fortress.

Anecdotal evidence backs up analysis from Myanmar watchers that suggests desertions are increasing and that the regime is concerned about increasing attacks on military and administrative targets, and the rising number of casualties. A number of military and administrative families in central Myanmar are reported to have picked up stakes and are moving to the capital Naypyidaw to seek safety.

Take the case of the junta soldier who recently received a 5-million-kyat reward from the Chin National Organization (CNO) for deserting with his weapon and ammunition, according to a Mizzima report. Previously the CNO had made public statements saying it would pay a reward to any Military Council soldier who deserted and joined their group. Htet Myat Aung, a soldier from Infantry Battalion (268) based in Falam Town, Chin State, took up the offer and joined the organization.

The National Unity Government (NUG) has made a point of saying it welcomed deserters to join the Spring Revolution aimed at taking back the country. Financial incentives are part of the scheme, yet the call is for soldiers to do the right thing and join the freedom movement.

Getting a grip on the true strength of the Myanmar military is hard, given they are not open to outside assessment. Official statistics tend to claim that the military numbers over 400,000 personnel. But security analysts note that battle-ready troops only number between 80,000 to 120,000.

There is also a sense that the generals are worried, and they are also split, with a number of officers in the higher echelons unhappy with the step taken by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in executing the 1 February 2021 coup.

Getting a grip on the stats is also a problem when monitoring the NUG and their allied resistance groups. If all the claims of the various named People’s Defence Force groups of killing Myanmar junta forces were added up, chances are the Myanmar military would be seriously suffering. Actual confirmed numbers are hard to come by. When it comes to desertions, the NUG claims over 10,000 personnel from the junta army and police force have deserted and joined anti-government forces since the coup.

These are still early days but it is clear that the Myanmar military is on the backfoot, largely because the coup makers seriously miscalculated the response their power grab would have on the ordinary citizens of the country. They are not just facing pushback from ethnic armed organizations - a scenario they are used to. They are facing pushback from a host of armed resistance and civilian groups across central Myanmar – including Yangon and Mandalay – who are intent on ousting the military from power, once and for all. This, say analysts, came as a shock to Min Aung Hlaing and his close generals.

The Myanmar people have had enough of decades of military rule. They are fighting - in whatever way they can - to get their country back, despite the odds.