The last two years have seen the Arakan Army (AA) strengthen its hold over Rakhine State and extend a number of self-administered zones.

In such areas, the AA controls both the judiciary and the legislation. This is true in a lot of Northern Rakhine State where the Myanmar junta has been facing many challenges since the coup.

The Myanmar Army dislikes this kind of autonomy, but It has suffered in recent fighting with the AA. Despite engaging the AA in skirmishes the Myanmar Army has never opened a military front against the AA. Some observers believe that this is because the Myanmar Army is fearful of the AA and sees them as a dangerous threat.

On 17 December 2021, the Arakan Army's political wing (ULA) released a statement alerting the people of Rakhine State to the possibility of a conflict between ethnic Rakhines and the Rohingya.

Recently, there have been some worrying cases of arson in Rakhine State. Two paddy fields and a pile of hay were burnt to ashes in Mrauk Oo. There was a similar case of arson in Kyaukphyu Township when a middle school was burned down and administrative staff were killed in Maungdaw Township.

The Myanmar Army has been threatening both ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya villagers, telling them not to support the AA.

If the Rohingya and ethnic Rakhine start cooperating it will be a blow to the Myanmar Army. It will be harder for it to achieve its aims.

The Rohingya have been unwilling to fight the ethnic Rakhines since Thein Sein was president between 2011 and 2015. Previous conflicts between the two communities have resulted in large casualties and much suffering on both sides.

Prior to the coup the Rohingya and ethnic Rakhines were not treated the same by the authorities, who banned the Rohingya from travelling outside of Rakhine State and even restricted their movement within the state, while permitting the ethnic Rakhines to travel freely anywhere in the country. This has meant that the proportion of Muslims among the Rakhine State population has risen.

The government has not been interested in helping either community and instead has fomented inter-ethnic unrest between the two communities for its own political benefit. The AA is taking a different view and wants to avoid inter-ethnic conflict.

The AA first started fighting the Myanmar military in 2015 and there was intense fighting between them in late 2018. So far, over 100 civilians have died in the fighting and 300 people have been arrested under suspicion of being AA soldiers. Some were arrested and killed in custody. Over 200,000 people have been displaced by the fighting and are now living in Internally displaced people’s (IDP) camps.

The Myanmar Army has also suffered heavy losses fighting the AA, despite using forces from the army, air force and navy against them.

The military indiscriminately attacked villages with jet fighters because they suspected AA fighters were sheltering there and Myanmar Navy ships patrolling rivers fired on villages. They have also often been used to transport soldiers around because they fear travelling overland.

But, in November 2020, three months before the coup, there was a ceasefire between the two forces. Khine Thu Kha, an AA spokesperson said: “As long as the Myanmar Army does not attack, everywhere is peaceful in Myanmar." The AA have also declared that they will not get involved in the anti-coup revolution.

The Arakan Army was established in Kachin State in April 2009 by about 20 young people, including General Htwan Myat Naing. It was the latest powerful revolutionary group to join Myanmar’s Ethnic armed organisations (EAOs). The AA started fighting the government in about 2015 and increased its attacks because it believed that Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) had no interest in the welfare and desires of the people in Rakhine State and were more interested in preserving the NLD’s power.

Now the AA is watching and has not been getting directly involved in political arguments since the NLD was accused of vote-rigging and the military takeover in February 2021, despite the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile and other EAOs trying to persuade them to get involved in the revolution against the coup.