As a second round of Myanmar junta-sponsored “peace talks” wind up, it is growing abundantly clear that the Myanmar generals are playing games as they seek to cause division within the ranks of the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) and tamp down military opposition to their rule.
Since the launching of peace talks initiated by State Administration Council (SAC) Chairman and Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing a few months ago, the second round of talks have just ended and the outcome is not encouraging.
It is problematic that while the SAC is running so-called “peace talks,” its military is practicing scorched-earth policies in attempts to neutralize its enemies, in the wake of their illegal February 2021 coup.
Meanwhile, this dialogue process took place against a backdrop of renewed armed conflict between the Arakan Army (AA) and junta troops; clashes between the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and the junta in Mongmit or Momeik Township, Shan State; and the holding of a Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNC) meeting prior to the second peace talks.
Parties involved
During the first round of peace talks the following 10 EAOs were involved: the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA); the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC); the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO); the New Mon State Party (NMSP); the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP); the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS); and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), which have signed the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA). Non-signatories of the NCA that joined the peace talks were the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).
Out of the 10 first round peace talks participants only the NMSP did not attend the second-round meeting. Officially the NMSP said failure to show up in Naypyitaw had something to do with its difficult time schedule, but the reality may be because of Mon public opinion, with the majority of people polled calling on their leaders not to negotiate with the tyrannical and barbaric military junta.
Similarly, on 26 September, 567 Civil Society Organizations signed an open letter called on the EAO leaders not to engage with the SAC junta.
Differing EAO goals
While the SAC is seeking to divide-and-rule, the EAOs have their own priorities. Generally speaking, four categories can be seen among the 10 EAOs talking to the SAC.
The first is aspiring for a higher administration status similar to statehood, not as an independent country - as the vocabulary denotes - but an ethnic state designation within the union, and obtaining a self-administered zone or division.
The second is either to ease military tension with the SAC or cooperate with it to gain military advantage such as controlling more territory on the ground with its blessing.
The third is to provide input in forming a federal democratic union, either by amending the Military-drafted 2008 Constitution or writing it anew.
And the fourth is to primarily ask for development of their respective regions.
The above categorization advanced by Development Media in its August 23 report can be refined by this writer to indicate that there may be a mixture of categories in some instances.
In a nutshell, UWSA and Mongla or NDAA will fall into the first category. The SSPP and RCSS will fall into a mixture of the second and third categories. The NMSP and PNLO will be in the third category, even though the latter also hopes to establish an ethnic state outside of Shan State, though this was not mentioned this time. The DKBA and the KNU/KNLA-PC are firmly within the fourth category, in part to assure their groups' continued survival. In the same vein, the ALP and also the LDU may fall into the fourth category, the former being weakened by inner disunity beside being a small outfit and the latter being a small organization without any armed soldiers.
UWSA, NDAA and SSPP
The second peace talks meeting between the SAC and NCA non-signatories UWSA, NDAA and SSPP was rescheduled and postponed for a week as the three groups wanted to determine how to position themselves in the negotiation. It turned out that the whole seven-member FPNC meeting took place in the UWSA capital of Panghsang, where the AA second-in-command Brig. Gen.
Nyo Twan Awng was also present.
However, the three EAOs travelled to Naypyitaw on 25 August, even though the SSPP has clashed twice with junta troops in Mongmit (Momeik in Burmese), where seven junta troops were killed and some wounded, with the ongoing military tension still dominating the atmosphere.
However, on 26 September, SAC Chairman Min Aung Hlaing met with the peace delegations led by vice-chairman of United Wa State Party (UWSP) Lau Yaku, vice-chairman of National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) San Pae and vice-chairman-2 of the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP) Sao Khun Seng at Bayintnaung villa in Naypyitaw.
Reportedly, the UWSA reiterated its call for an upgrade of its present Self-Administered Division to an ethnic state status, which it asked for during the first round of peace talks and repeatedly also called for in the past.
In the same vein, Mongla or NDAA also called for a Self-Administered Division in place of its Special Region-4 status.
The SSPP put emphasis on the constitutional issue and asked for the formation of a separate “Bamar State” in establishing a federal democratic union so that there will be ethnic equality, among other points of its proposal.
Min Aung Hlaing however was said to be non-committal to the proposals stated by the three EAOs. For the administrative upgrade to a full-fledged ethnic state of the UWSA and the NDAA Self-Administered Division, both sides confirmed that they were in agreement in principle, according to the BBC Burmese section report and also the Eleven Media Group.
“We agree in principle but constitutional amendment has to go through the parliament. Even though we can't amend it now, when the parliament is convened the Tatmadaw will support the agreement reached now,” said SAC spokesman General Zaw Min Tun.
However, concerning the SSPP constitutional amendment proposal there was no remarks on the part of the SAC chairman, according to SSPP spokesman Colonel Sai Su, report Shan sources.
The following four days of meeting from 27-30 September were headed by the vice-chairman of the UWSP, the vice-chairman of the NDAA and the vice-chairman-2 of the SSPP.
The final day of the report filed by Eleven Media Group on 30 September mentioned only the discussion and requirements to fulfil for the education and health sectors and regional development, with the UWSP Vice-Chairman U Lau Yaku and National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) Peace Talks Team Leader Lt-Gen Yar Pyae giving the closing speeches.
Many took note that the junta media were not reporting the three EAOs' proposals adequately but only highlighted how the EAOs were thrilled to come to the peace talks expressing their thankfulness for the SAC chairman's largesse.
SSPP proposal
Reportedly the SSPP Vice-chairman Sao Khun Seng speech during the meeting with SAC Chairman Min Aung Hlaing, which spelled out his party's political position, includes a four-point proposal and five-point constitutional guidelines that should be taken into account.
The four proposal points are:
1. To implement the Panglong Agreement, Panglong Principle, Panglong Commitment
2. To implement the agreements made at the 1961 Multi-Ethnic-State Conference (held in Taunggyi, Shan State, which was known as Shan Proposal or Federal Amendment Proposal)
3. To establish a Bamar State in order to bring about national equality.
4. To build a federal democratic union.
The five constitutional drafting guidelines are:
1. The member states of the Union and the people within these states are the original owners of sovereignty, so sovereignty derives from the people.
2. A federal democratic union is made up of member states of the union with full equality and self-determination, and all member states of the union are politically equal.
3. Union member states have the right to draft and enforce their respective state constitutions.
4. Power sharing, resource sharing, implementation of revenue sharing and fiscal federalism system. In the distribution of power, the law must be applied that the higher levels of government take responsibility only for matters beyond the ability of the government closest to the people.
5. All federal security and defence forces are under the command and control of the democratically-elected civilian government, and the implementation of policies based on human security.
In addition, in building the federal union, not only the structure construction principle but also the substance construction principle should be carried out at the same time. In building a federal democratic union, democratic rights, equality of basic human rights; right to self-determination; and collective leadership are necessary to uphold the principles of diversity and the protection of minorities as the values of the Union.
However, on 2 September, just two days after the second round peace talks Colonel Sai Su told the Than Lwin Times: “Our presentation to form a Bamar State within the federal system is not accepted (by the SAC Chairman). We cannot replace (the constitution) with what we want, nor can we move the chapters around. For them (the SAC), we can only discuss it according to the relevant chapter according to the table and according to the section. We can amend the 2008 Constitution section by section and can give opinions."
RCSS meets SAC
The NCA-signatory Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) is probably the most important negotiation partner of the SAC, as its comrade-in-arms the Karen National Union (KNU), also a NCA-signatory since 2015, is now actively combating the SAC in collaboration with the National Unity Government's (NUG) People's Defence Force (PDF) in Karen State.
The RCSS is the only ethnic outfit with over 10,000 troops that has signed the NCA whereas the rest vary around a thousand, some a few hundred and some with no armed soldiers at all. As such it becomes indispensable for the junta as the most powerful EAO that has signed the NCA, which gives the junta's peace talks initiative some sort of legitimacy.
A day after concluding the second round of peace talks meeting the RCSS issued a four-point statement on 2 September 2022 as below:
1. Aiming for the establishment of a federal union, the solution of the current political problems and the finding of political solution for political problems, in order to meet and discuss with the chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) and the State Peace Negotiating Team, the RCSS delegation, led by its chairman General Yawd Serk has gone to Nay Pyi Taw on 28 August 2022, in accordance with the invitation.
2. At Nay Pyi Taw, the RCSS delegation met and discussed with the Chairman of the SAC on 29 August 2022, and met and discussed with the State Peace Negotiating Team from 30 August 2022 through to 1 September 2022.
3. During the 3-day meeting with the State Peace Negotiating Team, the RCSS delegation presented as discussion points a peace roadmap for solving the general current political problems; RCSS's federal basic principles for the establishment of future federal union; work plans for building of trust; and development work for the local population. The State Peace Negotiation Team presented the Schedule One – Union Legislative List and Schedule Two – Region or State Legislative List in the 2008 Union Constitution. And whether the agreements in the Union Accord part (1), (2) and (3) are relevant with the 2008 Constitution and existing laws, the study of it and other things were discussed and explained.
4. As more time is needed to discuss the basic principles for the establishment of future federal union; and RCSS is not yet ready to discuss the amendment of the 2008 Constitution as presented by the State Peace Negotiating Team, and the State Peace Negotiating Team also need some time in preparation to discuss what theRCSS has presented, it was decided to continue to discuss them in future meetings.
Analysis
The EAOs going to Naypyitaw might have thought that the SAC leader has consolidated the three powers of legislation, executive and judiciary in his hands post-coup and could decide on a give-and-take outcome leading to their benefit. After all, the fact that the Wa administration functioned like a “state within a state” from 1989 onwards stems from the then military government agreement. SAC spokesman General Zaw Min Tun repeatedly mentioned that this is the time to cut the deal due to the concentration of political power in one person’s hands, namely SAC Chairman Min Aung Hlaing.
However, the said agreement in principle by the junta to the Wa statehood aspirations and Mongla Self-Administered Division is questionable according to the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy General Secretary Sai Leik. He said that the rights of sovereignty belong to the people inhabiting the said areas and not any government or for that reason not the coup-maker junta.
Another argument is that since the military only wield 25 per cent of parliamentary seats, its agreement and promise will come to naught if the other 75 per cent parliamentary stakes don't vote for the formation of a new ethnic state or new self-administered division.
Thus, the latest SAC chairman insistence and statement on sticking to the parliamentary procedure based on 2008 Constitution and NCA-based peace process nullified all the hopes of the SAC negotiation partners, especially the UWSA, NDAA and SSPP.
The speculation is that the SAC's primary aim may have been to request the UWSA not to deliver weapons to groups opposed to the junta and to keep the rest of the FPNCC members neutral, if not coming to its side.
With the end of United Nations General Assembly and the UN Credential Committee decision to keep the recognition of either the SAC or NUG pending, the junta’s hope for achieving international legitimacy was again dashed.
With the de jure and also de facto recognition of the SAC dwindling, according to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar report, it may go on with its tyrannical, barbaric rule which will mean the continuation of the bitter civil war.
In sum, the second round of peace talks could be taken as a fruitless undertaking, except perhaps for the junta which was able to keep most parts of Shan State's EAOs neutral and persuade them not to join the loose alliance of NUG and EAO fighters at war with the regime.
Author: Sai Wansai for Mizzima
