Mike Garner
When it comes to major military conflicts over the last century, China had Mao Zedong, East Timor had Xanana Gusmao, Afghanistan had Ahmad Shah Massoud and today Ukraine has Volodymyr Zelensky.
But when it comes to Myanmar’s Spring Revolution, outside observers struggle to identify a leader, apart from the jailed democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, now sadly out of sight and largely out of mind.
Duwa Lashi La, the acting president of Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government (NUG) may make online speeches and venture into the field to work with People’s Defence Force (PDF) fighters, but in terms of public perception he does not stand out as the Spring Revolution leader, and is reportedly hesitant to try to outshine Aung San Suu Kyi, given the depth of support she has amongst the Myanmar people.
‘NO PUBLIC FACE’
Analysts point out that this matters as Myanmar’s Spring Revolution hits a crucial juncture as clashes with junta forces intensify.
As one ASEAN politician told The Diplomat Magazine recently, “The NUG and PDF have no public face. There is no leader that people can rally around, there’s no central point.”
As members of the NUG celebrate the second anniversary of their founding on 16 April 2021, the Spring Revolution faces a conundrum, not easy to solve, and other deep-seated concerns as they put up a tough fight against the illegal Myanmar junta.
Few would question Duwa Lashi La’s deep commitment to the cause. Nor would they question the grueling efforts of the thousands of PDF fighters caught up in a life-and-death struggle against the junta around Myanmar. But two years in, it is becoming increasingly clear that the lack of a prominent leader and the plethora of local PDF and Ethnic Revolutionary Organization (ERO) groups – some publicly allied to the NUG and some not - are viewed by analysts as a weakness.
MYANMAR NEEDS ATTENTION
Myanmar people grumble that the Ukraine war gets world attention, with people swapping their Facebook profile pictures for the Ukrainian flag and posting Vogue magazine fashion photos of leader Zelensky and his wife, but not Myanmar.
The Myanmar Spring Revolution has no obvious go-to figurehead, bar the images of the revered Aung San Suu Kyi carried by demonstrators at anti-junta protests.
In the age of social media and personality politics, the NUG is at a critical stage as thousands of PDF fighters battle the Myanmar junta with limited weaponry and vulnerability to air attack – what is essentially the latest step on a grueling road to democracy and freedom in the country. In this heated environment, image matters.
Myanmar needs attention, given the appalling brutality of the Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing who appears intent on mimicking the 1970s Killing Fields of Cambodia’s Pol Pot.
Only last week, Min Aung Hlaing’s air force massacred over 170 villagers – men, women and children - in Pazigyi Village in strife-torn Sagaing Region, helicopters buzzing the dusty torn up area afterwards seeking to deny rescue teams the ability to collect and bury the bodies.
Luckily, news of the horror spread quickly on the internet, so there is international outreach.
NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La was quick to issue a call in the wake of the massacre to ASEAN and other international players to crack down on the illegal Myanmar junta wreaking mayhem, yet again stressing the Myanmar military generals need to be hauled up in front of the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity.
WORLD DISTRACTED
Myanmar citizens and interested international observers are seeing the horror play out, day by day, week by week in Myanmar. But the world is largely distracted by the war in Ukraine and fears of World War III, bubbling tension over China’s threat to invade Taiwan, and a world economy staggering under debt, with many banks failing.
There is little doubt that the Spring Revolution was a shock to the generals in Naypyidaw. Close observers of Myanmar recognize that Min Aung Hlaing misjudged the Myanmar people and that the situation could have been different. The senior general expected the people to protest against the coup and then go back to their normal lives. Min Aung Hlaing did not expect the aggressiveness of the Spring Revolution.
It can be argued that two years in, the NUG and the related National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) and the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) – the organized face of the resistance - have done a passable job of building up an alternative government including a defence arm to challenge the illegal junta.
NUG President's Office spokesperson Kyaw Zaw told Mizzima: “Overall, the NUG's performance in the past two years has been largely successful due to the support of the people, despite numerous challenges. As our Acting President has stated, the inability to fully protect the people from the Military Council's abuses is a significant challenge, but we are doing our best to overcome it. We are also working with international organizations to provide direct humanitarian assistance to the people. I urge the people to continue to cooperate and not lose momentum.”
That said, the NUG does not represent all the Spring Revolution players, and a number of PDFs and EROs operate independently, albeit with a common goal, to oust the junta.
The NUG, as the primary leadership body for the Spring Revolution, is working to coordinate and strengthen military operations against the Myanmar military, deliver humanitarian aid, build an alternative government infrastructure and strengthen its representation on the international stage.
FIGHTING POWER
What is clear, as seen in a recent assessment, is the NUG is arguably trying to do too much to build an alternative government and is thinly stretched, with the core challenge being to support PDF groups and the manpower fighting the war.
According to a report by the Nyan Lin Thit Analytica group entitled “Two Year Activities of the CRPH, NUCC and NUG” covering developments since the 1 February 2021 military coup up until January 2023, the PDFs were first established on 5 May 2021 by the NUG.
What appears to have happened is the NUG embraced the independent efforts of groups of young men, and some women, in forming resistance groups, some directly controlled by the NUG, but the majority pledging loyalty to the NUG but largely operating independently.
Although the people had been resisting the Military Council oppression for seven months in a largely peaceful way since the coup, when the time came to resist with a defensive war, NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La announced the “Right to Defense” starting from 7 September 2021.
From that time forward, armed revolutionary groups emerged all throughout the country and some are fighting in alliance with eight EROs to overthrow the Military Council. Moreover, in 2022, Burma People Liberation Army (BPLA) and Magway based People’s Revolution Army PRA-Magway met with NUG-Ministry of Defense and are said to be working in alliance in military matters.
According to the report, NUG leaders and NUG-Minister of Defense visited the frontline posts and revolutionary forces’ graduation ceremonies personally and took care of their living conditions. The NUG Ministry of Defense has also allied with the people to provide some levels of food supply, weapons and ammunition.
LIMITED WEAPONS SUPPLY
Weaponizing the resistance has been a serious problem. Although there was recently spurious talk about PDFs acquiring anti-aircraft weapons, the reality is many PDF groups are not fully armed and many operate with hand-made weapons and ammunition. Many of the PDFs rely on hit-and-run tactics using improvised explosive devices (IED) and make-shift commercial-quality drones.
Spokesman Kyaw Zaw notes there are difficulties even though Min Aung Hlaing admits that his regime has lost control of half of the country, and analysts claim the junta only commands 17 per cent of the territory.
The NUG spokesman admits they face challenges in acquiring weapons, while emphasizing the importance of a central command system to achieve greater success in the armed resistance movement.
“The demand for weapons is very high, and the cost of purchasing them has doubled, and in some cases tripled. Despite the challenges, the strength and resistance of the people remain strong. Currently, our focus is on developing the central command system, which has been successful to some extent. To achieve greater success, we need a central command system to fight unitedly and strategically. With that approach, great success will be achieved,” said Kyaw Zaw.
FUNDING DILEMMA
A core element for the NUG is funding and the ability to provide money to support the administration infrastructure and salaries, humanitarian aid for the needy, and the war effort.
The NUG is caught between two stools. On the one hand it is struggling to get international funding – funding that could help it bring more PDFs and EROs under a central command structure umbrella. On the other hand, the international community raises questions about how much control the NUG has over anti-junta resistance fighters.
The NUG needs funding. Yet Western governments, while lambasting the Myanmar junta for their atrocities, appear reluctant to provide the body with the recognition and the money to back this up.
DIPLOMATIC POSITIVITY
All that said, there has been progress on the international diplomatic front to raise the issue of Myanmar at the UN and with a number of governments around the world.
As the Nyan Lin Thit Analytica group report points out, the NUG saw a win with the US government administration. On 10 May 2021, the BURMA Act (Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act of 2021 or the BURMA Act of 2021) was submitted to the US Congress to impose sanctions on all those related to the Military Council and those who violate human rights against the people of Myanmar, whether it is an individual or the organization as a whole. On 23 December, 2022, US President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act-NDAA which included the Burma Act and therefore started non-lethal aid towards Myanmar.
This aid will be received from 2023 to 2027 and therefore, America is initiating its support to help the CRPH, NUCC, NUG, including the EROs.
On 21 December 2022, the United Nations Security Council called for an immediate end to all violence across Myanmar, and issued an order to the Myanmar Military Council to release all political prisoners, including President Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi. In addition, they called for dialogue and the implementation of the ASEAN Five-point Consensus.
The NUG, particularly through the office of the NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung, have been reaching out to engage with the relevant UN offices and officials in attempts to put the Myanmar crisis on the UN agenda.
UN Special Envoy Ms Noeleen Heyzer has been questioned over her interactions with the Myanmar opposition and the NUG. Ms Heyzer claimed in March 2023 that she has held unofficial meetings with representatives of the NUG, when queried by the media on this, and said she was planning to meet NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung, though it is unclear whether this meeting has taken place so far.
COMMON VISION?
One element of the Spring Revolution has been a call for the NUG to nail down what type of future they and other political players want for Myanmar.
Some analysts are calling on the NUG to hold talks with the various PDF and ERO players to help pull people together under the Spring Revolution umbrella to combat the junta but also formulate a template of a democratic federal union.
Nobody would expect this to be easy, particularly given all the years of effort spent on peace talks in Myanmar that have come to nothing.
As the NUG marks its second anniversary, many hope the international community will come to accept that it is not perfect. It may lack an obvious charismatic figurehead. But it is the best vehicle to work with if the world would like to see peace in the Golden Land.
