A natural disaster alert system has assessed that Cyclone Mocha, now beginning to hit Myanmar, will have a high humanitarian impact affecting over 16 million out of the country’s 54 million people based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability, according to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS).

As of 13 May, a total of 16,039,385 people in Myanmar are exposed to Cyclone Mocha, which is due to hit the Myanmar coast will full force this afternoon, 14 May.

Out of this total, around 1,751,501 people will be in the worst part, with wind speeds greater than 120km/h (74mph). The populations most exposed to such high wind speeds are in Rakhine (996,076), Sagaing (382,569) followed by Chin (240,293) and Magway (132,346).

Overall, this storm will affect around 5.6 million people in Sagaing, nearly 4 million in Magway, and around 2 million in Rakhine and Mandalay respectively and 1 million people in Kachin.

This is the assessment of a Population Exposure Analysis as of 13 May 2023 provided by UNITAR-UNOSAT.

The centre of the cyclone is currently located over the sea close to Sittwe City, the capital of Rakhine State, with maximum sustained winds of 231 km/h.

Further analysis by GDACS indicates that out of the 54 million population of Myanmar, 3 % or around 1.8 million people will be affected by a wind speeds that exceed 120 kph, 4% or around 2 million people by a wind speed of between 90-120 kph, and 23% or 12.3 million people by wind speed of between 60-90 kph.