Describing the COVID19 pandemic and the military take over as a double whammy on Myanmar economy and society, a recent UNDP study points out that “a pessimistic scenario is that poverty is going to be 48.2%, the levels that were not seen since 2005”. This would mean that all the gains that the country has achieved in terms of poverty reduction and human development would be wiped away and the country is going to fail in achieving SDGs by 2030. World Bank and other agencies have put the economic contraction to the extent of 10-20% due to COVID-19 and the military take over.

Using the data from 2017 household living conditions survey and a household vulnerability survey conducted in Sept 2020, UNDP has come out with estimates that reflect the possible downturn of the poverty situation in Myanmar. The outlook is grim with possibilities of rising poverty levels across the country. Urban informal sector workers, children, women headed households are going to be affected the most in this crisis.

Transmission of this double crisis is studied through economic modelling by the UNDP economists. There would be rise in poverty across the states and regions. More urbanised regions like Yangon and Mandalay are going to experience over three-fold rise in poverty which would be a cause of concern. About 48 per cent of people of Yangon and 40 per cent of people of Mandalay region are going to experience poverty by the end of the year compared to 14 and 13 per cent respectively in 2017.

Already anecdotal evidence point out price rise, cash crunch, shortage of essential commodities, fuel shortages and high prices, and deteriorating employment situation in major cities of the country. International firms are cutting down their investments, production and sales and having business disruptions due to the security situation and restrictions on internet and other means of communication. Consumption has also deteriorated drastically with less incomes in the hands of people. All these indicate a serious economic and social crisis is looming over Myanmar and urgent steps are needed to tide over this crisis and restore the country on the growth path.