Right now, Aung San Suu Kyi is a pawn being played by the Myanmar junta in a time of crisis.
Analysts suggest coup-maker Min Aung Hlaing seriously misjudged the Myanmar people when he grabbed power in 2021. And, two years on, facing a bitter armed pushback, he may well be hoping to dampen local disquiet and placate the angry West by doubling back to essentially “rerun” the opening of Myanmar in 2010.
As the State of Emergency is set to expire on 31 July, either we will see a renewal of this status for six months, or a radical change to an interim government purportedly to eventually usher in a national election, with the military tightly holding the reins.
Right now, it is unclear what will be chosen.
Also unclear is who is behind the changes being rolled out – coup-maker Min Aung Hlaing or senior generals pushing a soft coup to make sure their institution survives.
With absence of confirmation, Myanmar watchers may for now assume the man in charge of the changes is Min Aung Hlaing.
A key part of the strategy, as seen by Min Aung Hlaing, has been to return Myanmar’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest, reportedly placing her once again in her home in Yangon by the lakeside, and placing other key imprisoned political prisoners under house arrest as well.
At the same time, Min Aung Hlaing hopes Myanmar can return to the regional stage and be once again represented in the ASEAN forum, with the help of friendly neighbours who appear to have broken ranks over the failed and disappointing ASEAN Five-Point Consensus agreement.
All this involves Min Aung Hlaing making sure the stars are in alignment. The junta leader hopes for good karma as this is rolled out after the 1 August inauguration of the new Maravijaya Buddha statue built under the auspices of the military in Naypyidaw.
Right now, we are on the brink of change.
BACK TO THE FUTURE
It is easy for the Myanmar Spring Revolutionaries to stamp on photos of Min Aung Hlaing and verbally slag him off for the ugly war he is waging against his own people.
But, judging from the chess moves being played out, it would be wise not to underestimate his cunning, even though some of his own generals may be unhappy with the missteps he has made in handling of the 30-month-old crisis.
As we go to press, Min Aung Hlaing has the pawns in his hand. And, according to close observers, 1 August may be the day they are played out, or shortly thereafter.
Myanmar looks set for a shakeout that seeks to protect Min Aung Hlaing and the generals for strategic and personal reasons. And these moves, effectively reference developments in the past.
What is starkly clear is that the Myanmar generals misjudged the 2010 opening up of Myanmar and moves to bring in “disciplined democracy” under the 2008 Constitution – a charter that sought to cement military control under a quasi-democratic system. The country opening and the rolling out of a red carpet for foreign investors sent a message that good times were here after decades of restrictive military rule. The timeframe of 2010-20 proved a decade of change in which the young generation got used to a better way of life and grew more politically astute. This transition phase saw Aung San Suu Kyi freed from house arrest and move to pick up her father’s leadership mantle, stepping once again into the political race, after the troubles of the 1980s-1990s. The result was the Myanmar people voted en mass for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2015 and yet again in 2020.
Min Aung Hlaing and his generals underestimated the massive support and idolization of The Lady, after decades of military control. As a result of the 2020 election outcome, they sensed the country was slipping out of their hands, their exercise in “disciplined democracy” on the rocks, their personal wealth and position under threat.
Hence the February 2021 coup, executed under flimsy claims of election fraud. But this move to grab power backfired, prompting the rise of the aggressive Spring Revolution that threw any messages of compromise to the wind and plunged the Golden Land into crisis and civil war.
The underlying message from fighters and protestors was “now or never” as they turned to face a military that has abused their citizens for far too long.
NEXT MOVES?
Right now, on the eve of 1 August, the situation is in the air.
But there are important points to keep in mind.
The fact that Myanmar’s revered democracy icon will be able to enjoy a return to her Yangon lake-side house and possibly field “approved” visitors will be a great relief to her and her supporters, and send a message to the international community.
But the cat is out of the bag.
The move is arguably two years late. At this moment in time, the fighters of the Spring Revolution are in full swing attacking the junta armed forces under the banner of a federal democratic future, with the growing infrastructure of the National Unity Government (NUG), and other remnants of the former government, with funding to go with it.
While it is unlikely that Aung San Suu Kyi will compromise over Myanmar’s future, Min Aung Hlaing’s clique will likely seek to sow division, while at the same time doubling down on the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (ERO) – whilst trying to win over more of the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs).
SHOCK-AND-AWE
Min Aung Hlaing’s desperate junta may seek to win hearts and minds, locally, regionally and internationally. But these moves may not mean a stop to the “shock-and-awe” military tactics being used against PDFs and civilians in the hell-holes of Sagaing, Magway, Bago, Chin State and elsewhere.
All of which leaves The Lady stuck between a rock and a hard place. The Nobel Laureate who won her prize for her efforts to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar will be torn between the entreaties of peace and compromise and the underlying war being fought by the brave Spring Revolutionaries that seek to once-and-for-all end the draconian era of the generals.
For now, on the brink of 1 August, the Myanmar people wait.
